To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns? A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable.

[To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns? A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable.]

We examine the behavior of measured variances from the options market and the underlying stock market. Under the joint hypotheses that markets are informationally efficient and that option prices are explained by a particular asset pricing model, forecasts from time-series models of the stock return process should not have predictive content given the market forecast as embodied in option prices. Both in-sample and out-of-sample tests suggest that this hypothesis can be rejected. Using simulations, we show that biases inherent in the procedure we use to imply variances cannot explain this result. Thus, we provide evidence inconsistent with the orthogonality restrictions of option pricing models that assume that variance risk is unpriced. These results also have implications for optimum variance forecast rules.

[We examine the behavior of measured variances from the options market and the underlying stock market. Under the joint hypotheses that markets are informationally efficient and that option prices are explained by a particular asset pricing model, forecasts from time-series models of the stock-return process should not have predictive content given the market forecast as embodied in option prices. Both in-sample and out-of-sample tests suggest that this hypothesis can be rejected. Using simulations, we show that biases inherent in the procedure we use to imply variances cannot explain this result. Thus, we provide evidence inconsistent with the orthogonality restrictions of option pricing models that assume that variance risk is unpriced. These results also have implications for optimal variance forecast rules.]

[We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London International Financial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European and U.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. trading hours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during European trading hours. While the disclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.]

[When management has private information it has an incentive to finance investment by issuing a security that is overpriced in the market. The market's valuation of the issued security may lead management either to forego profitable investments or to invest suboptimally. With investment fixed, there exist fully revealing signaling equilibria in which the covenants of the issued claim serve as signals. A straight bond issue cannot provide the signals but a convertible bond issue can. With investment endogenous, fully revealing equilibria exist in which the par value of a straight bond issue and the announced level of investment jointly serve as signals and investment is optimal. The article also investigates the role of a stock repurchase in these equilibria.]

Foreign exchange returns exhibit behavior difficult to reconcile with standard theoretical models. This article asks whether the recent findings of long swings in exchange rates between appreciating and depreciating periods affect estimates of the foreign exchange risk premium. We demonstrate how the “peso problem” introduced by expected shifts in exchange rate regimes can affect inferences about the risk premium in at least two ways: (1) it can make the foreign exchange risk premium appear to contain a permanent disturbance when it does not; and (2) it can induce bias in the foreign exchange return regressions such as in Fama (1984).

I study the empirical importance of debt overhang using a unique data set on resource extraction firms that provides ex ante measures of investment opportunities and important variation in terms of a firm’s obligations. In particular, unsecured reclamation liabilities create overhang that is costly to resolve and induces firms to forgo and postpone positive NPV investments. Traditional debt, in contrast, imposes few overhang-related investment distortions. These results show that (a) the overhang problem is potentially large and more broadly applies to firms’ nondebt liabilities and (b) overhang problems associated with traditional debt can be avoided through contracting and debt composition.

I show that firms may optimally sell blocks of their own equity to other firms in anticipation of future corporate control activity. In the model, a target and one potential acquirer, who may also be an alliance partner, can negotiate before synergy values are learned. I find that equity implements an optimal mechanism, allowing the partners to extract surplus from outside bidders who may arrive later. The stake is limited by the outsiders' willingness to investigate. The results imply that corporate control may motivate an equity sale even when no takeover activity is apparent at the time or occurs ex post.

Sovereign debt yields have undergone a historic decline over the last half century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation based on a decline in inflation and default risk. We show that a model with sovereign default captures the decline in interest rates, the stability of equity valuation ratios, and the reduction in investment and output growth. Calibrations of the model post-COVID suggest that sovereign default risk may have returned.