Knowledge that Transforms

A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, and return variance data. The results yield a metric to judge the relative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discount rates and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-price ratio.

[This study uses 90 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to test for the existence of persistent seasonal patterns in the rates of return. Methodological issues regarding seasonality tests are considered. We find evidence of persistently anomalous returns around the turn of the week, around the turn of the month, around the turn of the year, and around holidays.]

[In a model of the firm in which insiders are privately informed of the firm's prospects and investment is endogenous, this article shows the existence of coarse dividend-signaling equilibria: Dividends partition the space of possible prospects of the firm, and changes in dividends reflect "broad," or nonincremental, changes in these prospects. These equilibria are shown to exist under general preference and technology structures, and it is argued that they closely match the following "anomalous" empirical features of corporate dividend payouts: Dividend changes have nontrivial information effects, yet dividends are smoothed (in a world with cyclic prospects), and dividends are poor predictors of future earnings. Furthermore, in performing comparative statics, this article derives cross-sectional and time-series restrictions on the relation of dividend smoothing to observable firm attributes.]

[This article investigates the existence of discontinuities in the sample path of exchange rates and of a stock market index. Maximum-likelihood estimation of a mixed jump-diffusion process reveals that exchange rates exhibit systematic discontinuities, even after allowing for conditional heteroskedasticity in the diffusion process. The results are much more significant in the foreign exchange market than in the stock market, which suggests differences in the structure of these markets. Finally, this jump component is shown to explain some of the empirically observed mispricings in the currency options market.]

[A restriction to nonnegative wealth is sufficient to preclude all arbitrage opportunities in financial models that have no arbitrage in limits of simple strategies. Imposing nonnegative wealth does not constrain agents from making the choice they would make under the standard integrability condition. These conclusions do not depend on whether markets are complete.]

[In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (1962-1985) and for all subperiods for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and size-sorted portfolios. Although the rejections are due largely to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be attributed completely to the effects of infrequent trading or time-varying volatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk for weekly returns does not support a mean-reverting model of asset prices.]

[Earlier studies report significant price disparities between futures and forward or spot markets. Examining the Treasury-bill markets, this article demonstrates that differences in market trading structures explain these disparities. Treasury-bill futures rates contain significantly lower liquidity and default premia than do synthetic forward rates. This reflects the functioning of a futures' clearing association and differences between an open-outcry auction futures market and an over-the-counter dealer spot market. The same factors that make futures contracts nonredundant securities also explain the existence, in equilibrium, of price disparities.]

[This article suggests that the lack of use of rights offerings in the United States, a phenomenon referred to as the equity underwriting paradox, can be explained by transaction-cost conditions. A sample of underwritten rights offerings provides support for the explanation. Firms making underwritten rights offerings paid lower underwriter fees but incurred significantly larger price drops just prior to the offering than did firms making underwritten public offerings. Further analysis reveals that the underwritten-rights-offering price concessions are a form of transaction cost that is not found in underwritten public offerings.]

[This article examines intraday transaction data for S&P 500 stock index futures prices and the intraday quotes for the underlying index. The data indicate that the futures price changes are uncorrelated and that the variability of these price changes exceeds the variability of price changes in the S&P 500 index. This excess variability of the futures over the index remains even after controlling for the nonsynchronous prices in the index quotes, which induces autocorrelation in the index changes. We advance and examine empirically two hypotheses regarding the difference between the futures price and its theoretical value: that this "mispricing" increases on average with maturity, and that it is path-dependent. Evidence supporting these hypotheses is presented.]