Knowledge that Transforms

A dynamic finite-horizon market for a risky asset with a continuum of risk-averse heterogeneously informed investors and a risk-neutral competitive market-making sector is examined. The article analyzes the effect of investors' horizons on the information content of prices. It is shown that short horizons enhance or reduce accumulated price informativeness depending on the temporal pattern of private information arrival. With concentrated arrival of information, short horizons, reduce final price informativeness; with diffuse arrival of information, short horizons enhance it. In the process a closed-form solution to the dynamic equilibrium with long-term investors is derived.

Foreign exchange returns exhibit behavior difficult to reconcile with standard theoretical models. This article asks whether the recent findings of long swings in exchange rates between appreciating and depreciating periods affect estimates of the foreign exchange risk premium. We demonstrate how the “peso problem” introduced by expected shifts in exchange rate regimes can affect inferences about the risk premium in at least two ways: (1) it can make the foreign exchange risk premium appear to contain a permanent disturbance when it does not; and (2) it can induce bias in the foreign exchange return regressions such as in Fama (1984).

In this article we provide econometric tools for the evaluation of intertemporal asset pricing models using specification-error and volatility bounds. We formulate analog estimators of these bounds, give conditions for consistency, and derive the limiting distribution of these estimators. The analysis incorporates market frictions such as short-sale constraints and proportional transactions costs. Among several applications we show how to use the methods to assess specific asset pricing models and to provide non-parametric characterizations of asset pricing anomalies.

In the absence of frictions, the value of the underlying asset implied by option prices must equal its actual market value. With frictions, however, this requirement need not hold. Using S&P 100 index options data, I find that the implied cost of the index is significantly higher in the options market than in the stock market, and is directly related to measures of transaction costs and liquidity. I show that the Black-Scholes model has strong bid-ask spread, trading volume, and open interest biases. Option pricing models that relax the martingale restriction perform significantly better.

This article provides a theory of foreign equity investment restrictions. We consider a model where the demand function for domestic shares differs between domestic and foreign investors because of deadweight costs in holding domestic and foreign securities that depend on the country of residence of investors. We show that domestic entrepreneurs maximize firm value by discriminating between domestic and foreign investors. The model implies that countries benefitting from capital flight have binding ownership restrictions such that foreign investors pay a higher price for shares than domestic investors. The empirical implications of this theory are supported by evidence from Switzerland. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

This article examines potential explanations for the wealth effects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find that new information concerning managers' investment policies is not revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We also find that dividend increases (decreases) are associated with subsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expenditures over the three years following the dividend change, and that dividend change announcements are associated with revisions in analysts' forecasts of current earnings. These results are consistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather than the free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observed stock price reactions to dividend change announcements.

We present an economic mechanism and supportive empirical evidence for the transmission of information between equity securities first documented by Lo and MacKinlay (1990). It is argued that the past returns on stocks held by informed institutional traders will be positively correlated with the contemporaneous returns on stocks held by noninstitutional uninformed traders. Evidence consistent with this hypothesis is then presented. We document that the returns on the portfolio of stocks with the highest level of institutional ownership lead the returns on portfolios of stocks with lower levels of institutional ownership. This effect persists even after firm size is controlled for and is apparent at longer lags than the size-related lag effects documented in Lo and MacKinlay (1990).

Journal Article Consolidation, Fragmentation, and the Disclosure of Trading Information Get access Ananth Madhavan Ananth Madhavan University of Southern California Address all correspondence to Ananth Madhavan, School of Business Administration, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-1421. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 8, Issue 3, July 1995, Pages 579–603, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/8.3.579 Published: 28 May 2015

Closed-end country funds can trade at large premiums and discounts from their foreign asset values (NAVs). Investigating this anomaly, we find that individual fund premiums move together, primarily because of the comovement of their stock prices with the U.S. market. Moreover, an index of country fund premiums differentiates size-ranked U.S. portfolio returns and forecasts country fund stock returns. These findings suggest that international equity prices are affected by local risk. In particular, we show that country fund premium movements reflect a U.S.-specific risk, which may be interpreted as U.S. market sentiment.

Journal Article Rational Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities Get access Richard Stanton Richard Stanton University of California, Berkeley Address correspondence to Richard Stanton, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, 350 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 8, Issue 3, July 1995, Pages 677–708, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/8.3.677 Published: 28 May 2015