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Racial Disparities in the Auto Loan Market

Review of Financial Studies 2022 36(1), 1-41
We document racial disparities in auto lending. Combining credit bureau records with borrower characteristics, we find that Black and Hispanic applicants’ approval rates are 1.5 percentage points lower, even after controlling for creditworthiness. In aggregate, this effect crowds out 80,000 minority loans each year. Results are stronger where racial biases are more prevalent and lending competition is lower. Minority borrowers pay 70-basis-point higher interest rates, but default less ceteris paribus, consistent with racial bias rather than statistical discrimination. A major antidiscrimination enforcement policy initiated in 2013, but halted in 2018, reduced unexplained racial differences in interest rates by 60%.

Cross-Listings and the Dynamics between Credit and Equity Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(1), 112-154 open access
We study how listing in multiple markets affects the dynamics between firms’ credit default swap (CDS) and stock returns. We find that cross-listing increases (1) the sensitivity of CDS to stock returns, (2) the integration of CDS with world equity and bond markets, and (3) the statistical synchronicity of CDS and stock prices. Our results are stronger for firms with greater media attention, analyst and CDS coverage, and Google search intensity and for listings in familiar markets. We suggest that a firm’s presence in global equity markets comes with an improvement in the credit-equity integration through a reduction of informational frictions. Received April 20, 2017; editorial decision February 12, 2019 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

How Important Is the Financial Media in Global Markets?

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(12), 3941-3992
This article studies differences in the information content of 870,000 news announcements in 56 markets around the world. In most developed markets, a firm's stock price moves much more on days with public news about the firm. In contrast, in many emerging markets volatility is similar on news and non-news days. We examine several hypotheses for our findings. Cross-country differences in stock price reactions are best explained by insider trading, followed by differences in the quality of the news dissemination mechanism. Our findings are useful for quantifying the extent of insider trading and how the financial media affects international markets.

Short-Term Interest Rates as Subordinated Diffusions

Review of Financial Studies 1997 10(3), 525-577
In this article we characterize and estimate the process for short-term interest rates using federal funds interest rate data. We presume that we are observing a discrete-time sample of a stationary scalar diffusion. We concentrate on a class of models in which the local volatility elasticity is constant and the drift has a flexible specification. To accommodate missing observations and to break the link between “economic time” and calendar time, we model the sampling scheme as an increasing process that is not directly observed. We propose and implement two new methods for estimation. We find evidence for a volatility elasticity between one and one-half and two. When interest rates are high, local mean reversion is small and the mechanism for inducing stationarity is the increased volatility of the diffusion process.

What Moves Stock Prices? The Roles of News, Noise, and Information

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(9), 4341-4386
We develop a return variance decomposition model to distinguish the roles of different types of information and noise in stock price movements. We disentangle four components: noise, private firm-specific information revealed through trading, firm-specific information revealed through public sources and market-wide information. Overall, we find that 31% of the return variance is from noise, 24% from private firm-specific information, 37% from public firm-specific information and 8% from market-wide information. Since the mid-1990s, there has been a dramatic decline in noise and an increase in firm-specific information, consistent with increasing market efficiency. The Internet Appendix that accompanies this paper can be obtained here: https://bit.ly/3FcV9UR

Does Aggregated Returns Disclosure Increase Portfolio Risk Taking?

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(6), 1971-2005 open access
Many experiments have found that participants take more investment risk if they see returns less frequently, see portfolio-level returns (rather than each individual asset's returns), or see long-horizon (rather than one-year) historical return distributions. In contrast, we find that such information aggregation treatments do not affect total equity investment when we make the investment environment more realistic than in prior experiments. Previously documented aggregation effects are not robust to changes in the risky asset's return distribution or the introduction of a multi-day delay between portfolio choice and return realizations.

Does the Market Understand Rating Shopping? Predicting MBS Losses with Initial Yields

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(2), 457-485
We study rating shopping on the MBS market. Outside of AAA, losses are higher on single-rated tranches than on multi-rated ones, and yields predict future losses for single-rated tranches, but not for multi-rated ones. Conversely, ratings have less explanatory power for single-rated tranches. These results suggest that single-rated tranches have been “shopped,” whereby pessimistic ratings never reach the market. For AAA-rated MBS, by contrast, 93% receive two or three such ratings, and those ratings agree 97% of the time. This ratings convergence suggests that agencies “cater” to investors, who cannot purchase a tranche unless it has multiple AAA ratings.

Financial Attention

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(4), 863-897 open access
This paper investigates financial attention using novel panel data on daily investor online account logins. We find support for selective attention to portfolio information. Account logins fall by 9.5% after market declines. Investors also pay less attention when the VIX volatility index is high. The level of attention and the attention/return correlation are strongly related to investor demographics (gender, age) and financial position (wealth, holdings). Using a new statistical decomposition, we show how aggregate and individual household trading are related to investor attention.

Can Human Capital Explain Income-Based Disparities in Financial Services?

Review of Financial Studies 2026 39(6), 1785-1822
Research shows that access to high-quality financial services varies with local income and wealth. We study how financial firms’ internal allocation of human capital contributes to these disparities. Using a near-comprehensive panel of over 350,000 U.S. mortgage loan officers, we document large and persistent differences in productivity and performance. We find that firms’ hiring and promotion practices allocate workers with less experience or poor track records to branches serving low-income customers. Further, the consequences of poor performance differ by location: low sales, bad loans, and misconduct are more tolerated in low-income branches, exacerbating income-based disparities in financial services.

Mutual Fund Flows at Long Horizons

Review of Financial Studies 2026
We show that positive flows to active mutual funds with high recent returns partially reverse at longer horizons. This outcome is robust across a broad range of alternative specifications. Reversal occurs from greater outflows associated with high prior returns, not reduced inflows. We test theories to explain the reversal: investment life cycles, tax loss selling, and a behavioral “disappointment” hypothesis based on investors’ overreaction to positive returns. While both tax loss selling and short investor life cycles can contribute, the evidence supports a role for investor disappointment, whereby investors redeem their capital when return performance fails to meet expectations.