This paper demonstrates how the principal-agent problem between venture capitalists and their investors (limited partners) causes limited partner returns to depend on diversifiable risk. Our theory shows why the need for investors to motivate VCs alters the negotiations between VCs and entrepreneurs and changes how new firms are priced. The three-way interaction rationalizes the use of high discount rates by VCs and predicts a correlation between total risk and net of fee investor returns. We take our theory to a unique data set and find empirical support for the effect of the principal-agent problem on equilibrium private equity asset prices.

We show that the positive volatility-volume relation documented by numerous researchers actually reflects the positive relation between volatility and the number of transactions. Thus, it is the occurrence of transactions per se, and not their size, that generates volatility; trade size has no information beyond that contained in the frequency of transactions. Our results suggest that theoretical research needs to entertain scenarios in which (1) both the frequency and size of trades are endogenously determined, yet (2) the size of trades has no information content beyond that contained in the number of transactions. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

We examine Japan's 1997 introduction of book building as an alternative to a previously required hybrid auction method. Despite higher cost for some issuers, all issuers in Japan now select book building. Book building enables more accurate valuation of firms, but gains from accurate valuation are partly redistributive. Thus book building can drive auction-method offerings from the market even if it yields no aggregate benefit. Compared to the auction regime, book building reduces issue costs for large issuers. Auctioning is less costly for small issuers, but appears to foreclose some small firms from issuing. The aggregate costs of book building and auctioning are similar.

A general approach to testing serial dependence restrictions implied from financial models is developed. In particular, we discuss joint serial dependence restrictions imposed by random walk, market microstructure, and rational expectations models recently examined in the literature. This approach incorporates more information from the data by explicitly modeling dependencies induced by the use of overlapping observations. Because the estimation problem is sufficiently simple in this framework, the test statistics have simple representations in terms of only a few unknown parameters. As a result, relatively good size properties are attained in small samples. In addition, the benefit to overlapping observations and the advantage of examining multiperiod time series are explicitly quantified.

Individuals increasingly buy mutual funds via online platforms, whose “best-buy” recommendations heavily influence flows. As intermediaries of mutual funds, platforms provide none of the unobservable interaction or intangible benefits of brokers, and so allow clean tests of the determinants, influence, and value of their fund recommendations. Using unique U.K. data, we find that platforms favor “own-brand” funds and those paying them a higher commission share. Investors discount own-brand recommendations, but not those paying high commission shares (which were not observable in the United Kingdom). A regulatory ban on commission sharing lowered costs and improved the informativeness of platform recommendations.

We develop a new approach to modeling and predicting stock returns in the presence of breaks that simultaneously affect a large cross-section of stocks. Exploiting information in the cross-section enables us to detect breaks in return prediction models with little delay and to generate out-of-sample return forecasts that are significantly more accurate than those from existing approaches. To identify the economic sources of breaks, we explore the asset pricing restrictions implied by a present value model which links breaks in return predictability to breaks in the cash flow growth and discount rate processes.

Nonprofit, mutually owned insurance and banking organizations have significant market shares in the insurance and banking industries. A first step in a systematic study of these financial mutuals is to examine the reasons for their formation. Doing so provides empirical support for the view that these mutuals arose as an efficient means of addressing contracting challenges caused by aggregate uncertainties and moral hazard. A formal model with this property is presented. We argue that information asymmetries do more to explain the kinds of contracts offered by financial mutuals than do agency problems between owners, managers, and customers.

We study an economy’s response to an unexpected epidemic. The spread of the disease can be mitigated by reducing consumption and hours worked in the office. Working from home is subject to learning-by-doing. Private agents’ rational incentives are relatively weak and fatalistic. The planner recognizes infection and congestion externalities and implements front-loaded mitigation. Under our calibration, the planner reduces cumulative fatalities by 48% compared to 24% by private agents, although with a sharper drop in consumption. Our model can replicate key industry and/or occupational-level patterns and explain how large variations in outcomes across regions can stem from small initial differences.

Numerous trading strategies examined in options research exhibit remarkably high mean returns and Sharpe ratios. We show some of these seemingly “good deals” are due to look-ahead biases. These biases stem from using information unavailable at the portfolio formation time to filter out observations suspected of being noisy or erroneous. Our results suggest that elevated Sharpe ratios may serve as potential indicators of such look-ahead biases. Furthermore, deviating from previous literature findings, we show that illiquidity is not strongly priced in stock options and that only a small set of stock characteristics are in fact associated with option expected returns.

Since 2012, all European Union countries have required disclosure of large short positions. This reduces short interest, bid-ask spreads, and the informativeness of prices. After specific disclosures, short-run abnormal returns are insignificantly negative, but 90-day cumulative abnormal returns are a statistically significant -5.23%. We find disclosures are likely to be followed by other disclosures, especially when the initial discloser is large or centrally located. However, there is no subsequent increase in short interest, and prices do not subsequently reverse. These results indicate that large short sellers are well informed, and that disclosures are not being used to coordinate manipulative attacks.