Knowledge that Transforms

Portfolio strategies that buy stocks with high returns over the previous 3–12 months and sell stocks with low returns over this same time period perform well over the following 12 months. A recent article by Conrad and Kaul (1998) presents striking evidence suggesting that the momentum profits are attributable to cross-sectional differences in expected returns rather than to any time-series dependence in returns. This article shows that Conrad and Kaul reach this conclusion because they do not take into account the small sample biases in their tests and bootstrap experiments. Our unbiased empirical tests indicate that cross-sectional differences in expected returns explain very little, if any, of the momentum profits.

This article provides a comprehensive study of survivorship issues using the mutual fund data of Carhart (1997). We demonstrate theoretically that when survival depends on multiperiod performance, the survivorship bias in average performance typically increases with the sample length. This is empirically relevant because evidence suggests a multiyear survival rule for U.S. mutual funds. In the data we find the annual bias increases from 0.07% for 1-year samples to 1% for samples longer than 15 years. We find that survivor conditioning weakens evidence of performance persistence. Finally, we explain how survivor conditioning affects the relation between performance and fund characteristics.

An emerging literature looking at self-selected, corporate news events concludes that markets appear to underreact to news. Recent theoretical articles have explored why or how underreaction might occur. However, the notion of underreaction is contentious. We revisit this issue by focusing on one of the most simple of corporate transactions, the stock split. Prior studies that report abnormal return drifts subsequent to splits do not appear to be spurious, nor a consequence of misspecified benchmarks. Using recent cases, we report a drift of 9% in the year following a split announcement. We consider fundamental operating performance as a source of the underreaction and find that splitting firms have an unusually low propensity to experience a contraction in future earnings. Further, analysts’ earnings forecasts are comparatively low at the time of the split announcement and revise sluggishly over time. Together these results are consistent with the notion of market underreaction to the information in corporate news events.

We examine the optimal trading strategy for a CRRA investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs. Closed-form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain. We then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon. Consistent with the common life-cycle investment advice, the optimal trading strategy is found to be horizon dependent and largely buy and hold. Moreover, it might be optimal for the investor in our model not to buy any stock, even when the risk premium is positive. Further analysis of the optimal policy is also provided.

Journal Article When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings Get access Alberto Moel, Alberto Moel Monitor Corporate Finance, Monitor Group Address correspondence to Peter Tufano, Harvard Business School, Morgan Hall, Soliders Field, Boston, MA 02163, or e-mail: [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Peter Tufano Peter Tufano Harvard Business School and NBER Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 15, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 35–64, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.1.35 Published: 16 June 2015

Using a unique dataset based on daily and hourly high-yield bond transaction prices, we find the informational efficiency of corporate bond prices is similar to that of the underlying stocks. We find that stocks do not lead bonds in reflecting firm-specific information. We further examine price behavior around earnings news and find that information is quickly incorporated into both bond and stock prices, even at short return horizons. Finally, we find that measures of market quality are no poorer for the bonds in our sample than for the underlying stocks.

This article analyzes the intraday interdependence of order flows and price movements for actively traded NYSE stocks and their Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)-traded options. Stock net trade volume (buyer-initiated volume minus seller-initiated volume) has strong predictive ability for stock and option quote revisions, but option net trade volume has no incremental predictive ability. This suggests that informed investors initiate trades in the stock market but not in the option market. On the other hand, both stock and option quote revisions have predictive ability for each other. Thus, while information in the stock market is contained in both quote revisions and trades, information in the option market is contained only in quote revisions.

Attempts to characterize stock return predictability have resulted in little consensus on the important conditioning variables, giving rise to model uncertainty and data snooping fears. We introduce a new methodology that explicitly incorporates model uncertainty by comparing all possible models simultaneously and in which the priors are calibrated to reflect economically meaningful information. Our approach minimizes data snooping given the information set and the priors. We compare the prior views of a skeptic and a confident investor. The data imply posterior probabilities that are in general more supportive of stock return predictability than the priors for both types of investors. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Most mutual funds adopt investment styles that cluster around a broad market benchmark. Few funds take extreme positions away from the index, but those who do are more likely to favor growth stocks and past winners. The bias toward glamour and the tendency of poorly performing value funds to shift styles may reflect agency and behavioral considerations. After adjusting for style, there is evidence that growth managers on average outperform value managers. Though a fund’s factor loadings and its portfolio characteristics generally yield similar conclusions about its style, an approach using portfolio characteristics predicts fund returns better.

Proprietary information generated through the process of lending can impact the structure of the banking industry. With more competing banks, borrower-specific information becomes more disperse, as each bank becomes informed about a smaller pool of borrowers. This reduces banks’ screening ability, creating an inefficiency as more low-quality borrowers obtain financing. Incumbent banks’ information advantage may also create difficulties for potential entrants, so that entry should be easier in markets with high borrower turnover or where entrants have specific expertise in evaluating credit risks. We draw implications for whether financial deregulation is likely to increase borrowers’ surplus, and what patterns of entry might be observed.