Knowledge that Transforms

We construct an index of firms' external finance constraints via generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of an investment Euler equation. Unlike the commonly used KZ index, ours is consistent with firm characteristics associated with external finance constraints. Constrained firms' returns move together, suggesting the existence of a financial constraints factor. This factor earns a positive but insignificant average return. Much of the variation in this factor cannot be explained by the Fama--French and momentum factors. Cross-sectional regressions of returns on our index and other firm characteristics show that constrained firms earn higher returns and that the financial-constraints effect dominates the size effect.

We conjecture that macro-level institutions affect equity trading costs through their impact on information risk and investor participation. In a study of trading costs for 412 NYSE-listed American Depository Receipts (ADRs) from 44 countries, we find that, after controlling for firm-level determinants of trading costs, effective spreads and price impact of trades are significantly lower for stocks from countries with better ratings for judicial efficiency, accounting standards, and political stability. Trading costs are significantly higher for stocks from French civil law countries than from common law countries. Overall, we conclude that improvements in legal and political institutions will lower the cost of liquidity in financial markets.

This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option.

This article shows how the market coskewness model of Rubinstein (1973) and Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) is altered when a nonredundant call option is optimally traded. Owing to the option's nonredundancy, the economy's stochastic discount factor (SDF) depends not only on the market return and the square of the market return but also on the option return, the square of the option return, and the product of the market and option returns. This leads to an asset pricing model in which the expected return on any risky asset depends explicitly on the asset's coskewness with option returns. The empirical results show that the option coskewness model outperforms several competing benchmark models. Furthermore, option coskewness captures some of the same risks as the Fama-French factors small minus big (SMB) and high minus low (HML). These results suggest that the factors that drive the pricing of nonredundant options are also important for pricing risky equities.

This article models, and experimentally simulates, the free-rider problem in a takeover when the raider has the option to "resolicit," that is, to make a new offer after an offer has been rejected. In theory, the option to resolicit, by lowering offer credibility, increases the dissipative losses associated with free riding. The outcomes of our experiment support this prediction and produce losses from free riding even higher than theoretically predicted. These dissipation losses reduce raider gains to less than 3% of synergy value of the acquisition

This article proposes a trading-based explanation for the asymmetric effect in daily volatility of individual stock returns. Previous studies propose two major hypotheses for this phenomenon: leverage effect and time-varying expected returns. However, leverage has no impact on asymmetric volatility at the daily frequency and, moreover, we observe asymmetric volatility for stocks with no leverage. Also, expected returns may vary with the business cycle, that is, at a lower than daily frequency. Trading activity of contrarian and herding investors has a robust effect on the relationship between daily volatility and lagged return. Consistent with the predictions of the rational expectation models, the non-informational liquidity-driven (herding) trades increase volatility following stock price declines, and the informed (contrarian) trades reduce volatility following stock price increases. The results are robust to different measures of volatility and trading activity.

This article evaluates the impact of capital controls and their liberalization on the activities of US multinational firms. These firms attempt to circumvent capital controls by reducing reported local profitability and increasing the frequency of dividend repatriations. As a result, the reported profit impact of local capital controls is comparable with the effect of 27% higher corporate tax rates, and affiliates located in countries imposing capital controls are 9.8% more likely than other affiliates to remit dividends to parent companies. Multinational affiliates located in countries with capital controls face 5.25% higher interest rates on local borrowing than do affiliates of the same parent borrowing locally in countries without capital controls. Capital control liberalizations are associated with significant increases in multinational activity-property, plant, and equipment grow at 6.9% faster annual rates following liberalizations. The combination of the costliness of avoidance and higher interest rates discourages investment in countries with capital controls, and this effect is reversed upon liberalization of controls.

This article shows how to evaluate the performance of managed portfolios using stochastic discount factors (SDFs) from continuous-time term structure models. These models imply empirical factors that include time averages of the underlying state variables. The approach addresses a performance measurement bias, described by Goetzmann, Ingersoll, and Ivkovic (2000) and Ferson and Khang (2002), arising because fund managers may trade within the return measurement interval or hold positions in replicable options. The empirical factors contribute explanatory power in factor model regressions and reduce model pricing errors. We illustrate the approach on US government bond funds during 1986-2000.

We exploit the restrictions of intertemporal portfolio choice in the presence of nonfinancial income risk to test hedging using the information contained in the actual portfolio of the investor. We use a unique data set of Swedish investors with information broken down at the investor level and into various components of investor wealth, income, and demographic characteristics. Portfolio holdings are identified at the stock level. We show that investors do not hedge but invest in stocks closely related to their nonfinancial income. We explain this with familiarity, that is, the tendency to concentrate holdings in stocks to which the investor is geographically or professionally close or that he has held for a long period. We show that familiarity is not a behavioral bias, but is information driven. Familiarity-based investment allows investors to earn higher returns than they would have otherwise earned if they had hedged.

In this article, we provide a novel rationale for credit ratings. The rationale that we propose is that credit ratings serve as a coordinating mechanism in situations where multiple equilibria can obtain. We show that credit ratings provide a "focal point" for firms and their investors, and explore the vital, but previously overlooked implicit contractual relationship between a credit rating agency (CRA) and a firm through its credit watch procedures. Credit ratings can help fix the desired equilibrium and as such play an economically meaningful role. Our model provides several empirical predictions and insights regarding the expected price impact of rating changes.