Knowledge that Transforms

[Auto lenders were perhaps the biggest winners of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform, as Chapter 13 bankruptcy filers can no longer “cramdown” the amount owed on recent auto loans. We estimate the causal effect of this anticramdown provision on the price and quantity of auto credit. Exploiting historical variation in states’ usage of Chapter 13 bankruptcy, we find strong evidence that eliminating cramdowns decreased interest rates and some evidence that loan sizes increased among subprime borrowers. The decline in interest rates is persistent and is robust to a battery of sensitivity checks. We rule out other reform changes as possible causes.]

[I develop a model of venture capital (VC) intermediation that quantitatively explains central empirical facts about VC activity and can evaluate its macroeconomic relevance. The impact of VC-backed innovations is significantly larger than suggested by observed aggregate venture exit valuations, even after accounting for large exposures to systematic and uninsurable idiosyncratic risks. The risk properties of venture capital play a quantitatively important role in both explaining empirical regularities and shaping the value of ventures’ contributions to economic growth. The model is analytically tractable and yields exact solutions, despite the presence of matching frictions, imperfect risk sharing, and endogenous growth.]

This paper studies communications between investors and firms as a form of corporate governance. Activist investors cannot force their ideas on companies; they must persuade the board or other shareholders that implementing these ideas is beneficial to the firm. I show that the threat of voice (i.e., launching a public campaign) facilitates communication, whereas the option to exit facilitates communication if and only if the proposal is risky relative to the status quo or voice is ineffective as a governance mechanism. The analysis identifies factors that contribute to successful dialogues between investors and firms.ReceivedMay 31, 2017; editorial decision September 4, 2018 by Editor Francesca Cornelli.

We study the impact of higher capital requirements on banks’ balance sheets and their transmission to the real economy. The 2011 EBA capital exercise is an almost ideal quasi-natural experiment to identify this impact with a difference-in-differences matching estimator. We find that treated banks increase their capital ratios by reducing their risk-weighted assets, not by raising their levels of equity, consistent with debt overhang. Banks reduce lending to corporate and retail customers, resulting in lower asset, investment, and sales growth for firms obtaining a larger share of their bank credit from the treated banks. Received November 28, 2016; editorial decision March 9, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which are available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Strong conflicts of interest exist within investment banks: the investment banking division possesses substantial private information, and the asset management division seeks such information. This raises the question of whether the asset management division benefits from an information advantage on client firms. While prior examinations of advisor bank trading in client firms have focused on stocks and found mixed results, we argue that the options market represents a more attractive venue for such trading. We find significant evidence of advisor banks trading in client firm options ahead of merger announcements, but no evidence of similar trading in client firm stock. Received October 22, 2015; editorial decision June 5, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Ex ante estimates of the volatility premium embedded in VIX futures, known as the VIX premium, fall or stay flat when ex ante measures of risk rise. This is not an artifact of mismeasurement: (i) ex ante premiums reliably predict ex post returns to VIX futures with a coefficient near one, and (ii) falling ex ante premiums predict increasing ex post market and investment risk, creating profitable trading opportunities. Falling hedging demand helps explain this behavior, as premiums and trader exposures tend to fall together when risk rises. These facts provide a puzzle for theories of why investors hedge volatility. Received January 13, 2017; editorial decision April 26, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

[We exploit one of the largest data leaks, to date, to study whether and how firms use secret offshore vehicles. From the leaked data, we identify 338 listed firms as users of secret offshore vehicles and document that these vehicles are used to finance corruption, avoid taxes, and expropriate shareholders. Overall, the leak erased $174 billion in market capitalization among implicated firms. Following the increased transparency brought about by the leak, implicated firms experience lower sales from perceptively corrupt countries and avoid less tax. We conservatively estimate that 1 in 7 firms have offshore secrets.]

We study market-making high-frequency trader (HFT) dynamics around large institutional trades in Canadian equities markets using order-level data with masked trader identification. Following a regulatory change that negatively affected HFT order activity, we find that bid-ask spreads increased and price impact decreased for institutional trades. The decrease in price impact is strongest for informed institutional traders. During institutional trade executions, HFTs submit more same-direction orders and increase their inventory mean reversion rates. Our evidence indicates that high-frequency trading is associated with lower transaction costs for small, uninformed trades and higher transaction costs for large, informed trades.Received May 24, 2016; editorial decision June 21, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

[We show that, in the presence of correlated investment opportunities across firms, risk sharing between firm shareholders and firm managers leads to compensation contracts that include relative performance evaluation. These contracts bias investment choices toward correlated investment opportunities, and thus create systemic risk. Furthermore, we show that leverage amplifies all such effects. In the context of the banking industry, we analyze recent policy recommendations for firm managerial pay and show how shareholders optimally undo the policies’ intended effects.]

[Using matched borrower-lender data, we document strong nonprice supplier effects in mortgage contract choice. For given relative price of adjustable and fixed rate mortgages, households borrowing from banks hit by shocks to the cost of long term funding, or to the deposits base or to access to securitization are more likely to choose adjustable rate mortgages. Supply factors have larger effects on less-sophisticated households and at times of price inaction. A model in which banks affect borrowers’choices through prices and distorted advice predicts these findings. We contrast the distorted advice interpretation of the evidence against the potential alternative nonprice channels.]