Knowledge that Transforms

[A Bayesian approach is used to investigate a sample's information about a portfolio's degree of inefficiency. With standard diffuse priors, posterior distributions for measures of portfolio inefficiency can concentrate well away from values consistent with efficiency, even when the portfolio is exactly efficient in the sample. The data indicate that the NYSE-AMEX market portfolio is rather inefficient in the presence of a riskless asset, although this conclusion is justified only after an analysis using informative priors. Including a riskless asset significantly reduces any sample's ability to produce posterior distributions supporting small degrees of inefficiency.]

[We contend that security design should be approached as a problem of game design. That is, contracts should specify the procedures that govern the behavior of contract participants in determining outcomes as well as the allocations resulting from those outcomes. We characterize optimal contracts in two nested classes: all contracts (including those that depend on the state) and state-independent contracts. We demonstrate that, in situations in which the dependence of contracts on the state is limited, contracts designed as games can improve the allocation of resources relative to nonstrategic allocation rules.]

[In this article we provide econometric tools for the evaluation of intertemporal asset pricing models using specification-error and volatility bounds. We formulate analog estimators of these bounds, give conditions for consistency, and derive the limiting distribution of these estimators. The analysis incorporates market frictions such as short-sale constraints and proportional transactions costs. Among several applications we show how to use the methods to assess specific asset pricing models and to provide nonparametric characterizations of asset pricing anomalies.]

[It is commonly believed that fragmented security markets have a natural tendency to consolidate. This article examines this belief, focusing on the effect of disclosing trading information to market participants. We show that large traders who place multiple trades can benefit from the absence of trade disclosure in a fragmented market, as can dealers who face less price competition than in a unified market. Consequently, a fragmented market need not coalesce into a single market unless trade disclosure is mandatory. We also compare and contrast fragmented and consolidated markets. Fragmentation results in higher price volatility and violations of price efficiency.]

[Markets for many real assets are characterized by sequential search followed by bilateral bargaining between matched buyers and sellers. For a category of real assets, the joint, intertemporal valuation problems of buyers, owners, and sellers, and the associated Nash pricing function are solved explicitly. In equilibrium, the average transaction price is a noisy, proportional random walk, and the liquidity premium is positive for matched owners. Depending on the values of the parameters, the liquidity premium can be substantial. In a related problem of optimal development with costly search, the optimal exercise point, cost of development, and value of the undeveloped asset are calculated analytically. With search, development can occur sooner and undeveloped assets have lower market values than the standard solution without search.]

[We develop an arbitrage-free discrete time model to price American-style claims for which domestic term structure risk, foreign term structure risk, and currency risk are important. This model combines a discrete version of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) term structure model with the binomial model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979). It converges (weakly) to the continuous time models in Amin and Jarrow (1991, 1992). The general model is "path dependent" and can be implemented with arbitrary volatility functions to value claims with maturity up to five years. The model is illustrated with applications to long-dated American currency warrants and a cross-rate swap from the quanto class.]

[In the absence of frictions, the value of the underlying asset implied by option prices must equal its actual market value. With frictions, however, this requirement need not hold. Using S&P 100 index options data, I find that the implied cost of the index is significantly higher in the options market than in the stock market, and is directly related to measures of transaction costs and liquidity. I show that the Black-Scholes model has strong bid-ask spread, trading volume, and open interest biases. Option pricing models that relax the martingale restriction perform significantly better.]

[We study insider trading in a dynamic setting. Rational, but uninformed, traders choose between investment projects with different levels of insider trading. Insider trading distorts investment toward assets with less private information. However, when investment is sufficiently information elastic, insider trading can be welfare-enhancing because of more informative prices. When insiders repeatedly receive information, they trade to reveal it when investment is information elastic because good news increases investment and hence future insider profits. Thus, more information is revealed and uninformed agents are exploited less frequently by insiders. Both effects are Pareto-improving. Finally, we consider various insider-trading regulations.]

[This article addresses the problem of valuing American call options with caps on dividend-paying assets. Since early exercise is allowed, the valuation problem requires the determination of optimal exercise policies. Options with two types of caps are analyzed: constant caps and caps with a constant growth rate. For constant caps, it is optimal to exercise at the first time at which the underlying asset's price equals or exceeds the minimum of the cap and the optimal exercise boundary for the corresponding uncapped option. For caps that grow at a constant rate, the optimal exercise strategy can be specified by three endogenous parameters.]

[This article investigates the behavior of intraday trades and quotes for individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). We examine the transaction and quote record for three firms for the first 3 months of 1990. Our findings suggest that the immediacy available (at least for small trades) in the market is high, despite the reliance on public limit orders to supply liquidity. When orders that would otherwise walk through the limit order book are converted into limit orders, execution is delayed, but some orders execute (at least in part) at more favourable prices.]