Knowledge that Transforms

In a study of the ownership of German corporations, we find a strong relation between board turnover and corporate performance, little association of concentrations of ownership with managerial disciplining, and only limited evidence that pyramid structures can be used for control purposes. The static relationship of ownership to control in Germany is therefore similar to the United Kingdom and the United States. However, there are marked differences in dynamic relations involving transfers of ownership. There is an active market in share blocks giving rise to changes in control, but the gains are limited and accrue solely to the holders of large blocks, not to minority investors. We provide evidence of low overall benefits to control changes and the exploitation of private benefits of control.

Evaluating default correlations or the probabilities of default by more than one firm is an important task in credit analysis, derivatives pricing, and risk management. However, default correlations cannot be measured directly, multiple-default modeling is technically difficult, and most existing credit models cannot be applied to analyze multiple defaults. This article develops a first-passage-time model, providing an analytical formula for calculating default correlations that is easily implemented and conveniently used for a variety of financial applications. The model also provides a theoretical justification for several empirical regularities in the credit risk literature.

Volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: contemporaneous return and conditional return volatility are negatively correlated. In this article I develop an asymmetric volatility model where dividend growth and dividend volatility are the two state variables of the economy. The model allows both the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect, the two popular explanations of asymmetry. The model is estimated by the simulated method of moments. I find that both the leverage effect and volatility feedback are important determinants of asymmetric volatility, and volatility feedback is significant both statistically and economically.

New York Stock Exchange specialists disseminate information to market participants by displaying price schedules consisting of bid prices, ask prices, bid depths, and ask depths. We examine how specialists update these price schedules in a simultaneous equations model. We find that changes in the best prices and depths on the limit order book have a significant impact on the posted price schedule, while the effects of transactions and order activity are secondary. Furthermore, we show that specialists revise prices and depths differently, but find no evidence that they revise the price schedule in response to changes in inventory.

We examine insider trading activities of all companies traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq during the 1975-1995 period. In general, very little market movement is observed when insiders trade and when they report their trades to the SEC. Insiders in aggregate are contrarian investors. However, they predict market movements better than simple contrarian strategies. Insiders also seem to be able to predict cross-sectional stock returns. The result, however, is driven by insider's ability to predict returns in smaller firms. In addition, informativeness of insiders' activities is coming from purchases, while insider selling appears to have no predictive ability.

This article develops a theoretical model to explain the permanent price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated block trades (the permanent price impact of buys is larger than that of sells). The model shows how the trading strategy of institutional portfolio managers creates a difference between the information content of buys and sells. The main implication of the model is that the history of price performance influences the asymmetry: the longer the run-up in a stock's price, the less the asymmetry. The intensity of institutional trading and the frequency of information events affect the asymmetry differently depending on recent price performance.

This article presents a simple yet powerful new approach for approximating the value of American options by simulation. The key to this approach is the use of least squares to estimate the conditional expected payoff to the optionholder from continuation. This makes this approach readily applicable in path-dependent and multifactor situations where traditional finite difference techniques cannot be used. We illustrate this technique with several realistic examples including valuing an option when the underlying asset follows a jump-diffusion process and valuing an American swaption in a 20-factor string model of the term structure.

This article examines the use of foreign currency derivatives (FCDs) in a sample of 720 large U.S. nonfinancial firms between 1990 and 1995 and its potential impact on firm value. Using Tobin's Q as a proxy for firm value, we find a positive relation between firm value and the use of FCDs. The hedging premium is statistically and economically significant for firms with exposure to exchange rates and is on average 4.87% of firm value. We also find some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that hedging causes an increase in firm value.

Bakshi and Chen (1996b) suggest that the spirit of capitalism affects stock prices by increasing society's aversion to risk. In this article, I show that the way in which the spirit of capitalism impinges upon asset prices depends on the interaction of impatience, willingness to substitute over time, and ordinal preferences between consumption and status, in addition to risk aversion. I develop a general model that charts the channels through which the spirit of capitalism affects asset prices. An increase in the capitalist spirit may increase or decrease risk aversion, and may actually decrease the prices of risky assets.

While folklore in finance holds that split valuation effects are due to dividend increases associated with splits, little is known about magnitudes of dividend and nondividend components of split announcement effects. We find that splits and dividends are indeed informational substitutes, a notion we characterize more precisely, but a significant portion of split valuation effects, 46% according to our estimates, cannot be attributed to dividend information in splits. Our techniques extend the literature on conditional event-study methods and we illustrate their practical value in testing hypotheses and analyzing data not amenable to analysis by standard procedures.