Knowledge that Transforms

This article uses a general equilibrium framework to explore the origins and limitations of financial intermediaries. In the model, investors have a generic lending technology that they can improve at a cost. Those who upgrade become intermediaries to exploit their advantage. However, conflicts with depositors will limit the banks' market presence, and they will only lend to moderately endowed firms while bondholders will finance cash-rich corporations. The article also analyzes the extent to which investors adopt the superior lending technique, the nature of bank competition, and how corporate and bank conditions affect interest rates and investment.

This article develops a theory of multiunit auctions where short squeezes can occur in the secondary market. Both uniform and discriminatory auctions are studied and bidders can submit multiple bids. We show that bidders with short and long preauction positions have different valuations in an otherwise common value setting. Discriminatory auctions lead to more short squeezing and higher revenue than uniform auctions, ceteris paribus. Asymptotically, as the auction size approaches infinity, the two formats lead to equivalent outcomes. Shorts employ more aggressive equilibrium bidding strategies. Most longs strategically choose to be passive. Free riding on a squeeze by small, long players has no impact on these results, but affects revenue in discriminatory auctions.

We provide empirical evidence that a firm's overall visibility with investors, as measured by its product market advertising, has important consequences for the stock market. Specifically we show that firms with greater advertising expenditures, ceteris paribus, have a larger number of both individual and institutional investors, and better liquidity of their common stock. Our findings are robust to a variety of methodological approaches and to various measures of liquidity. These results suggest that the investors' degree of familiarity with a firm may affect its cost of capital and consequently its value.

We study 84 dual-class stock unifications, where superior vote shareholders gave up their superior voting status (all firm stocks became "one share one vote") and received (in most cases) compensation in the form of additional shares. Unifications are essentially intrafirm transactions of voting rights, and afford observation of the intrafirm-assessed price of vote. The price of vote in unifications (1) increases with the percentage vote lost by the majority shareholders, (2) is higher in family-controlled firms, (3) decreases with institutional investor holdings, and (4) is similar to the "outside" price of vote implicit in the market prices of stocks.

Institutional investors' demand for a security this quarter is positively correlated with their demand for the security last quarter. We attribute this to institutional investors following each other into and out of the same securities ("herding") and institutional investors following their own lag trades. Although institutional investors are "momentum" traders, little of their herding results from momentum trading. Moreover, institutional demand is more strongly related to lag institutional demand than lag returns. Results are most consistent with the hypothesis that institutions herd as a result of inferring information from each other's trades.

Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990) show how to use conditioning information optimally to construct a sharper unconditional variance bound (the GHT bound) on pricing kernels. The literature predominantly resorts to a simple but suboptimal procedure that scales returns with predictive instruments and computes standard bounds using the original and scaled returns. This article provides a formal bridge between the two approaches. We propose an optimally scaled bound that coincides with the GHT bound when the first and second conditional moments are known. When these moments are misspecified, our optimally scaled bound yields a valid lower bound for the standard deviation of pricing kernels, whereas the GHT bound does not. We illustrate the behavior of the bounds using a number of linear and nonlinear models for consumption growth and bond and stock returns. We also illustrate how the optimally scaled bound can be used as a diagnostic for the specification of the first two conditional moments of asset returns.

An important feature of financial markets is that securities are traded repeatedly by asymmetrically informed investors. We study how current and future adverse selection affect the required return. We find that the bid-ask spread generated by adverse selection is not a cost, on average, for agents who trade, and hence the bid-ask spread does not directly influence the required return. Adverse selection contributes to trading-decision distortions, however, implying allocation costs, which affect the required return. We explicitly derive the effect of adverse selection on required returns, and show how our result differs from models that consider the bid-ask spread to be an exogenous cost.

This article studies the link between public trading and the activity of a firm's large shareholder who can affect firm value. Public trading results in the formation of a stock price that is informative about the large shareholder's activity. This increases the latter's incentives to engage in value-increasing activities. Indeed, if he has to liquidate part of his stake before the effect of his activity is publicly observed, a more informative price rewards him for his activity. Implications are derived for the decision to go public, capital structure, and security design.

While IPOs have been underpriced by more than 10% during the past two decades, we find that in a sample of more than 2,000 IPOs from 1980 to 1997, the median IPO was significantly overvalued at the offer price relative to valuations based on industry peer price multiples. This overvaluation ranges from 14% to 50% depending on the peer matching criteria. Cross-sectional regressions show that "overvalued" IPOs provide high first-day returns, but low long-run risk-adjusted returns. These overvalued IPOs have lower profitability, higher accruals, and higher analyst growth forecasts than "undervalued" IPOs. Ex post, the projected high growth of overvalued IPOs fails to materialize, while their profitability declines from pre-IPO levels. These results suggest IPO investors are deceived by optimistic growth forecasts and pay insufficient attention to profitability in valuing IPOs.

This article offers an explanation for the substantial variation of credit standards and price competition among banks over the business cycle. As the economic outlook improves, the average default probabilities of borrowers decline. This affects the profitability of screening and causes bank screening intensity to display an inverse U-shape as a function of economic prospects. Low screening activity in expansions creates intense price competition among lenders and loans are extended to lower-quality borrowers. As the economic outlook worsens, price competition diminishes, and credit standards tighten significantly. Deposit insurance may contribute to the countercyclical variation of credit standards.