Knowledge that Transforms

The evidence in Fama and Bliss (1987) that forward interest rates forecast future spot interest rates for horizons beyond a year repeats in the out-of-sample 1986-2004 period. But the inference that this forecast power is due to mean reversion of the spot rate toward a constant expected value no longer seems valid. Instead, the predictability of the spot rate captured by forward rates seems to be due to mean reversion toward a time-varying expected value that is subject to a sequence of apparently permanent shocks that are on balance positive to mid-1981 and on balance negative thereafter.

The underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) is generally explained with asymmetric information and risk. We complement these traditional explanations with a new theory where investors worry also about the after-market illiquidity that may result from asymmetric information after the IPO. The less liquid the aftermarket is expected to be, and the less predictable its liquidity, the larger will be the IPO underpricing. Our model blends such liquidity concerns with adverse selection and risk as motives for underpricing. The model's predictions are supported by evidence for 337 British IPOs effected between 1998 and 2000. Using various measures of liquidity, we find that expected after-market liquidity and liquidity risk are important determinants of IPO underpricing.

We construct an index of firms' external finance constraints via generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of an investment Euler equation. Unlike the commonly used KZ index, ours is consistent with firm characteristics associated with external finance constraints. Constrained firms' returns move together, suggesting the existence of a financial constraints factor. This factor earns a positive but insignificant average return. Much of the variation in this factor cannot be explained by the Fama-French and momentum factors. Cross-sectional regressions of returns on our index and other firm characteristics show that constrained firms earn higher returns and that the financial-constraints effect dominates the size effect.

We propose a novel economic mechanism that generates stock return predictability in both the time series and the cross-section. Investors' income has two sources, wages and dividends that grow stochastically over time. As a consequence the fraction of total income produced by wages fluctuates depending on economic conditions. We show that the risk premium that investors require to hold stocks varies with these fluctuations. A regression of stock returns on lagged values of the labor income to consumption ratio produces statistically significant coefficients and large adjusted R2s. Tests of the model's cross-sectional predictions on the set of 25 Fama-French portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market are also met with considerable support.

We investigate the interaction between banks' use of information acquisition as a strategic tool and their role in promoting the efficiency of credit markets when a bank's ability to gather information varies with its distance to the borrower. We show that banks acquire proprietary information both to soften lending competition and to extend their market share. As competition increases, investments in information acquisition fall, leading to lower interest rates but also to less efficient lending decisions. Consistent with the recent wave of bank acquisitions, we also find that merging for informational reasons with a competitor is an optimal response to industry consolidation.

We analyze contemporaneous and predictive relations between credit ratings and measures of equity market liquidity and find that common measures of adverse selection, which reflect a portion of the uncertainty about future firm value, are larger when credit ratings are poorer. We also show that future rating changes can be predicted using current levels of adverse selection. Collectively, our results validate widely used microstructure measures of adverse selection and offer new insights into the value of credit ratings and the specific nature of the information they contain.

Relations between foreign exchange risk premia, exchange rate volatility, and the volatilities of the pricing kernels for the underlying currencies, are derived under the assumption of integrated capital markets. As predicted, the volatility of exchange rates is significantly associated with the estimated volatility of the relevant pricing kernels, and foreign exchange risk premia are significantly related to both the estimated volatility of the pricing kernels and the volatility of exchange rates. The estimated foreign exchange risk premia mostly satisfy Fama's (1984) necessary conditions for explaining the forward premium puzzle, but the puzzle remains in several cases even after taking account of the pricing kernel volatilities.

Using both a linear regression method and a probability-based method, we find that on average, analysts place larger than efficient weights on (i.e., they overweight) their private information when they forecast corporate earnings. We also find that analysts overweight more when issuing forecasts more favorable than the consensus, and overweight less, and may even underweight, private information when issuing forecasts less favorable than the consensus. Further, the deviation from efficient weighting increases when the benefits from doing so are high or when the costs of doing so are low. These results suggest that analysts' incentives play a larger role in misweighting than their behavioral biases.

We investigate the implications of time-varying expected return and volatility on asset allocation in a high dimensional setting. We propose a dynamic factor multivariate stochastic volatility (DFMSV) model that allows the first two moments of returns to vary over time for a large number of assets. We then evaluate the economic significance of the DFMSV model by examining the performance of various dynamic portfolio strategies chosen by mean-variance investors in a universe of 36 stocks. We find that the DFMSV dynamic strategies significantly outperform various bench-mark strategies out of sample. This outperformance is robust to different performance measures, investor's objective functions, time periods, and assets.

This article provides evidence of information transmission from the United States and Japan to Korean and Thai equity markets. Information is defined as important macroeconomic announcements in the United States, Japan, Korea, and Thailand. Using high-frequency intraday data, I find a large and significant association between developed-economy macroeconomic announcements and emerging-economy equity volatility and trading volume at short time horizons. Previous studies' findings of at most weak evidence of transmission from developed to emerging economies may be due to their use of lower frequency data and their focus on developed-economy financial market innovations as a proxy for information.