Knowledge that Transforms

Because life annuities can increase the level and decrease the volatility of lifetime consumption, economists have long been puzzled by the low demand for life annuities. One potential rational explanation is that adverse selection drives up life annuity prices, which drives down demand. We study the choice between life annuities and lump sums made by 32,000 retiring public employees. These unique data allow us to extend the existing literature by exploiting economically significant cross-sectional and time-series variation in life annuity pricing. We find little evidence that retiree demand for life annuities rises when life annuity prices fall. We find strong evidence that demand responds to salient variation in individual characteristics, such as health, and to measures of investor sentiment, such as recent equity returns.

Previous findings regarding the risk-shifting behavior of mid-year underperforming mutual fund managers are mixed. In this article, I show that this is due to a “sorting bias,” which is caused by the sorting of first-half risk levels when establishing relative mid-year performance. Even without risk-shifting behavior, mean reversion of these sorted risk levels results in the detection of tournament behavior. After correcting for this bias, I find evidence supporting the hypothesis that first-half underperforming managers increase portfolio risk during the second half of the year and that this tournament behavior is not dependent on first-half market conditions.

We test several hypotheses on how takeover premium is related to investors' divergence of opinion on a target's equity value. We show that the total takeover premium, the pre-announcement target stock price run-up, and the post-announcement stock price markup are all higher when investors have higher divergence of opinion. We obtain identical results with higher market-level investor sentiment. When divergence of opinion is higher, a firm is less likely to be a takeover target, although takeover synergy in successful takeovers is higher. Our results suggest that takeovers may play a role in explaining high contemporaneous stock prices in the presence of high divergence of investor opinion.

Recent cases of hedge fund fraud have caused large losses for investors and have fueled the debate regarding the ability of regulators to oversee the industry. This article proposes a set of performance flags, based on suspicious patterns in returns, as indicators of a heightened risk of fraud. We collect a sample of hedge funds charged with legal or regulatory violations and find that funds charged with misappropriation, overvaluation, misrepresentation, or Ponzi schemes trigger the performance flags at a higher frequency than other funds.

This paper offers a fully rational, dynamic model of opaque over-the-counter markets. An investor searches for an attractive price by visiting multiple dealers in any chosen sequence, including repeat contacts. The dealers do not observe negotiations elsewhere in the market, including the order of contacts. Under stated conditions, a repeat contact with a dealer reveals the investor's reduced outside options and worsens the price quote. When the fundamental value of an asset is uncertain, market opacity and uncertain contact order could exacerbate adverse selection and lead to inefficient market breakdown.

We use a natural experiment in Denmark to test the hypothesis that aspiring entrepreneurs face financial constraints because of low entrepreneurial quality. We identify 304 constrained entrepreneurs who start a business after receiving windfall wealth and examine the performance of these marginal entrepreneurs. We find that constrained entrepreneurs have significantly lower survival rates and lower profits when compared with a matched sample of unconstrained entrepreneurs. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the marginal entrepreneur is of low quality.

We solve for a firm's optimal cash holding policy within a continuous time, contingent claims framework using dividends, short-term borrowing, and equity issues as controls assuming mean reversion of earnings. Optimal cash is non-monotone in business conditions and increasing in the level of long-term debt. The model matches closely a wide range of empirical benchmarks and predicts cash and leverage dynamics in line with the empirical literature. Firm value is quite insensitive to changes in the level of long-term debt. The model has interesting implications for asset substitution, hedging, and pecking order. Growth opportunities do not greatly affect cash holding policy.

This article studies the ability of security-level contracts to substitute for poor country-level investor protections. Using a cross-country sample of restrictive covenants, we find that bond contacts are more likely to include covenants when creditor protection laws are weak. Further, the use of restrictive covenants in weak creditor protection countries is associated with a lower cost of debt. We also find that strong country-level shareholder rights are not necessarily harmful to bondholders. Overall, the findings suggest that issuers and investors can create international contracts that overcome some of the deficiencies of country-level investor protections and facilitate access to external finance.

This article rationalizes empirical patterns of market leverage, book leverage, book-to-market ratios, and stock returns across different book-to-market portfolios, using a model of firm financing and investment. The model analytically shows that tax deductibility of interest payments increases effective investment irreversibility and that investment irreversibility weakens the relation between book-to-market values and returns. This provides a clear and novel mechanism showing how financial leverage affects stock returns beyond the standard Modigliani-Miller paradigm. The article argues that market leverage, rather than operating leverage or investment irreversibility, explains a major portion of the value premium. Empirical evidence supports this argument. The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

This article examines the relationship between a mortgage originator's affiliation with the sponsor of a securitization or the servicer of the securitized loans and the default rate on the securitized mortgages. We find that default rates are significantly lower for securitizations in which the originator is affiliated with the sponsor or servicer. Consistent with investors expecting performance to vary with affiliation, we find that the initial yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are lower and the percentage of AAA-rated securities issued against the securitized pool of loans is higher when the originator is affiliated with either the sponsor or servicer.