Knowledge that Transforms

[This article provides a theory of foreign equity investment restrictions. We consider a model where the demand function for domestic shares differs between domestic and foreign investors because of deadweight costs in holding domestic and foreign securities that depend on the country of residence of investors. We show that domestic entrepreneurs maximize firm value by discriminating between domestic and foreign investors. The model implies that countries benefiting from capital flight have binding ownership restrictions such that foreign investors pay a higher price for shares than domestic investors. The empirical implications of this theory are supported by evidence from Switzerland.]

[Foreign exchange returns exhibit behavior difficult to reconcile with standard theoretical models. This article asks whether the recent findings of long swings in exchange rates between appreciating and depreciating periods affect estimates of the foreign exchange risk premium. We demonstrate how the "peso problem" introduced by expected shifts in exchange rate regimes can affect inferences about the risk premium in at least two ways: (1) it can make the foreign exchange risk premium appear to contain a permanent disturbance when it does not; and (2) it can induce bias in the foreign exchange return regressions such as in Fama (1984).]

[This article develops a multiperiod rational expectations model of stock trading in which investors have differential information concerning the underlying value of the stock. Investors trade competitively in the stock market based on their private information and the information revealed by the market-clearing prices, as well as other public news. We examine how trading volume is related to the information flow in the market and how investors' trading reveals their private information.]

[The emergence of new equity markets in Europe, Latin America, Asia, the Mideast and Africa provides a new menu of opportunities for investors. These markets exhibit high expected returns as well as high volatility. Importantly, the low correlations with developed countries' equity markets significantly reduces the unconditional portfolio risk of a world investor. However, standard global asset pricing models, which assume complete integration of capital markets, fail to explain the cross section of average returns in emerging countries. An analysis of the predictability of the returns reveals that emerging market returns are more likely than developed countries to be influenced by local information.]

[This article explores the information effect of financial risk management. Financial hedging improves the informativeness of corporate earnings as a signal of management ability and project quality by eliminating extraneous noise. Managerial and shareholder incentives regarding information transmission may differ, however, leading to conflicts regarding an optimal hedging policy. We show that these incentives depend on the accounting information made available by the firm. Under some circumstances, if hedge transactions are not disclosed (i.e., firms report only aggregate earnings), managers hedge to achieve greater risk reduction than they would if full disclosure were required. In these cases, it is optimal for shareholders to request only aggregate accounting reports.]

[We develop a measurement theory of market integration, based on two notions of "integrated markets." First, two markets cannot be perfectly integrated in any sense if one can construct two portfolios, one from each market, that have identical payoffs but different prices. In that case, the law of one price is violated across the markets. Second, they cannot be integrated in a stronger sense if there are cross-market arbitrage opportunities. Two measures of market integration are developed, respectively reflecting these notions. The smaller the measures, the more closely integrated (in the respective senses) the markets. Among other things, they are interpreted as measuring pricing discrepancy between markets.]

[This article examines potential explanations for the wealth effects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find that new information concerning managers' investment policies is not revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We also find that dividend increases (decreases) are associated with subsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expenditures over the three years following the dividend change, and that dividend change announcements are associated with revisions in analysts' forecasts of current earnings. These results are consistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather than the free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observed stock price reactions to dividend change announcements.]

[This article examines the conditions under which bank lenders make concessions by taking equity in financially distressed firms. I show that the role banks play in debt restructurings depends on the financial condition of the firm, the existence of public debt in the firm's capital structure and the ability of public debt to be restructured. Empirically, I find that for firms with public debt outstanding, banks never make concessions unless public debtholders also restructure their claims. When banks do take equity, on average they obtain a substantial proportion of the firm's stock, and they maintain their position for over two years.]

[The relation between theorized components of the bid-ask spread and trade size for a sample of NYSE firms is examined. We find that the adverse selection component increases uniformly with trade size. Conversely, order processing costs decrease with increases in trade size for all but the largest trades. We find that order persistence decreases with trade size. The adverse selection component is highest at the beginning of the day and lowest at the end of the day for all but the largest trades. Trades of NYSE firms executed on regional exchanges or NASDAQ contain a large order processing cost component but no significant adverse information effect.]

[This article examines the effects of portfolio insurance on market and asset price dynamics in a general equilibrium continuous-time model. Portfolio insurers are modeled as expected utility maximizing agents. Martingale methods are employed in solving the individual agents' dynamic consumption-portfolio problems. Comparisons are made between the optimal consumption processes, optimally invested wealth and portfolio strategies of the portfolio insurers and "normal agents." At a general equilibrium level, comparisons across economies reveal that the market volatility and risk premium are decreased, and the asset and market price levels increased, by the presence of portfolio insurance.]