Knowledge that Transforms

Using a consumption-based asset pricing model with infinite-horizon nonlinear habit formation, Campbell and Cochrane (1999) show that low consumption in surplus of habit should forecast high expected returns. This article argues that the finite-horizon linear habit model also implies an inverse relation between expected returns and surplus consumption. This article also presents empirical evidence, which indicates that expected returns on stocks and bonds vary with surplus consumption implied by the habit models. The volatility of returns and the reward to volatility are also related to surplus consumption. However, less than 30% of the predictable variation of expected returns, using standard lagged information variables, is attributed to surplus consumption.

Much of the empirical literature that has examined the functional relationship between firm value and managerial ownership levels assumes that managerial ownership levels are exogenous and are the only component of managerial compensation related to firm performance. This assumption is contrary to the theoretical and empirical literature wherein managerial compensation is endogenously determined and includes both shares and options. Using instruments for managerial compensation and panel data to control for unobservable heterogeneity in the firm's contracting environment, we estimate a system of simultaneous equations. We find that firms are in equilibrium when they endogenously set their chief executive officer's compensation.

This article examines how to properly specify and test for factors that affect exchange-rate exposure. Starting from theoretical underpinnings and a sample of U.S. manufacturing industries between 1979 and 1995, we find that 4 of 18 industry groups are significantly exposed to exchange-rate movements through the effect of industry competitive structure, export share, and imported input share. On average, a 1% appreciation of the dollar decreases the return of the average industry by 0.13%. Consistent with our model's predictions, as an industry's markups fall (rise), its exchange-rate exposure increases (decreases).

This article develops precise connections among two general approaches to building interest rate models: a general equilibrium approach using a pricing kernel and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton framework based on specifying forward rate volatilities and the market price of risk. The connections exploit the observation that a pricing kernel is uniquely determined by its drift. Through these connections we provide, for any arbitrage-free term structure model, a representative-consumer real production economy supporting that term structure model in equilibrium. We put particular emphasis on models in which interest rates remain positive. By modeling the dynamics of the drift of the pricing kernel, we construct a new family of Markovian-positive interest rate models.

Traditional models of portfolio choice assume that investors can continuously trade unlimited amounts of securities. In reality, investors face liquidity constraints. I analyze a model where investors are restricted to trading strategies that are of bounded variation. An investor facing this type of illiquidity behaves very differently from an unconstrained investor. A liquidity-constrained investor endogenously acts as if facing borrowing and short-selling constraints, and one may take riskier positions than in liquid markets. I solve for the shadow cost of illiquidity and show that large price discounts can be sustained in a rational model.

We test whether the impact of financial constraints on firm value is observable in stock returns. We form portfolios of firms based on observable characteristics related to financial constraints and test for common variation in stock returns. Financially constrained firms' stock returns move together over time, suggesting that constrained firms are subject to common shocks. Constrained firms have low average stock returns in our 1968-1997 sample of growing manufacturing firms. We find no evidence that the relative performance of constrained firms reflects monetary policy, credit conditions, or business cycles.

Buying recent winners and shorting recent losers guarantees time-varying factor exposures in accordance with the performance of common risk factors during the ranking period. Adjusted for this dynamic risk exposure, momentum profits are remarkably stable across subperiods of the entire post-1926 era. Factor models can explain 95% of winner or loser return variability, but cannot explain their mean returns. Momentum strategies which base winner or loser status on stock-specific return components are more profitable than those based on total returns. Neither industry effects nor cross-sectional differences in expected returns are the primary cause of the momentum phenomenon.

This article systematically examines the importance of exchange rate movements and industry competition for stock returns. Common shocks to industries across countries are more important than competitive shocks due to changes in exchange rates. Weekly exchange rate shocks explain almost nothing of the relative performance of industries. Using returns measured over longer horizons, the importance of exchange rate shocks increases slightly and the importance of industry common shocks increases more substantially. Both industry and exchange rate shocks are more important for industries that produce internationally traded goods, but the importance of these shocks is economically small for these industries as well.