To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:
175 results ✕ Clear filters

Kicking Maturity Down the Road: Early Refinancing and Maturity Management in the Corporate Bond Market

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(8), 3061-3097
This paper examines debt maturity management through early refinancing, where firms retire their outstanding bonds before the due date and simultaneously issue new ones as replacements. Speculative-grade firms frequently refinance their corporate bonds early to extend maturity, particularly under accommodating credit supply conditions, leading to a procyclical maturity structure. In contrast, investment-grade firms do not manage their maturity in the same manner. I exploit the protection period of callable bonds to show that the maturity extension is not driven by unobservable confounding factors. The evidence is consistent with speculative-grade firms dynamically managing maturity to mitigate refinancing risk. Received June 6, 2016; editorial decision September 21, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan

The History of the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(7), 2606-2649 open access
Using data spanning the twentieth century, we show that the majority of accounting-based return anomalies, including investment, are most likely an artifact of data snooping. When examined out-of-sample by moving either backward or forward in time, the average returns and Sharpe ratios of most anomalies decrease, whereas their volatilities and correlations with other anomalies increase. The few anomalies that do persist out-of-sample correlate with the shift from investment in physical capital to intangible capital and the increasing reliance on debt financing over the twentieth century. Received November 25, 2016; editorial decision September 23, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

High-Frequency Measures of Informed Trading and Corporate Announcements

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(6), 2326-2376
We explore the dynamics of informed trading around corporate announcements of merger bids, dividend initiations, SEOs, and quarterly earnings by calculating daily posterior probabilities of informed buying and selling. We find evidence of informed trading before the announcements and a significant part of the news in announcements is impounded in stock prices before the announcements by pre-event informed trading. We also find evidence of informed trading after the announcements. Most strikingly, the probability of informed trading after merger bids predicts the probability of the bid being withdrawn or met with a competing bid. For other announcements, post-announcement informed-trading probabilities predict subsequent returns. Received September 26, 2016; editorial decision December 17, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Rolling Mental Accounts

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(1), 362-397
When investors sell one asset and quickly buy another (“reinvestment days”), their trades suggest the original mental account is not closed, but is instead rolled into the new asset. Retail investors trading on their own accounts display a rolled disposition effect, selling the new position when its value exceeds the initial investment in the original position. On reinvestment days, these investors display no disposition effect (consistent with no disutility from realizing a loss) and make better selling decisions. Using a laboratory experiment, we show that reinvestment causally reduces the disposition effect and improves trading. Received April 10, 2016; editorial decision January 28, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(7), 2553-2605 open access
We propose that innovative originality is a valuable organizational resource and that owing to limited investor attention and skepticism of complexity, greater innovative originality may be undervalued. We find that firms' innovative originality strongly predicts higher, more persistent, and less volatile profitability and higher abnormal stock returns, findings that are robust to extensive controls. The return predictive power of innovative originality is stronger for firms with higher valuation uncertainty, lower investor attention, and greater sensitivity of future profitability to innovative originality. This evidence suggests that innovative originality acts as a "competitive moat" and is undervalued by the market.

Quantifying Liquidity and Default Risks of Corporate Bonds over the Business Cycle

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(3), 852-897 open access
We develop a structural credit model to examine how interactions between default and liquidity affect corporate bond pricing. The model features debt rollover and bond-price-dependent holding costs. Over the business cycle and in the cross-section, the model matches average default rates and credit spreads in the data, and captures variations in bid-ask and bond-CDS spreads. A structural decomposition reveals that default-liquidity interactions can account for 10%–24% of the level of credit spreads and 16%–46% of the changes in spreads over the business cycle. Further, liquidity-related corporate bond financing costs amount to 6% of the total issuance amount from 1996 to 2015. Received July 12, 2015; editorial decision April 15, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Mutual Fund Competition, Managerial Skill, and Alpha Persistence

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(5), 1896-1929
What economic forces limit mutual fund managers from generating consistent outperformance? We propose and test the hypothesis that buy-side competition from other funds matters. We make three contributions. First, we propose new style-based spatial methods to identify the customized rivals of each fund. Second, we construct dynamic, fund-specific measures of competition and generate measures of skill as a fund’s outperformance relative to its customized peers. Third, and finally, we show that funds outperforming their customized rivals generate future alpha when they face less competition. These results are economically significant and last for over four quarters. Received September 11, 2016; editorial decision September 26, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Tests of Return Predictability: What Is the Difference?

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(5), 1784-1824
We compare the performance of time-series (TS) and cross-sectional (CS) strategies based on past returns. While CS strategies are zero-net investment long/short strategies, TS strategies take on a time-varying net long investment in risky assets. For individual stocks, the difference between the performances of TS and CS strategies is largely due to this time-varying net long investment. With multiple international asset classes with heterogeneous return distributions, scaled CS strategies significantly outperform similarly scaled TS strategies. Received December 7, 2016; editorial decision October 5, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Does a Larger Menu Increase Appetite? Collateral Eligibility and Credit Supply

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(3), 943-979 open access
We examine a change in the European Central Bank’s collateral framework, which significantly lowered the rating requirement for eligible residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and its impact on bank lending and risk-taking in the Netherlands. Banks most affected by the policy increase loan supply and lower interest rates on new mortgage originations. These lower-interest-rate loans serve as collateral for newly issued RMBS with lower-rated tranches and subsequently experience worse repayment performance. The performance deterioration is pronounced among loans with state guarantees, which suggests that looser collateral requirements may lead to undesired credit risk transfer to the sovereign. Received June 14, 2016; editorial decision September 8, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan.

The Effects of Business Accelerators on Venture Performance: Evidence from Start-Up Chile

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(4), 1566-1603 open access
Do business accelerators affect new venture performance? We investigate this question in the context of Start-Up Chile, an ecosystem accelerator. We focus on two treatment conditions typically found in business accelerators: basic services of funding and coworking space, and additional entrepreneurship schooling. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that schooling bundled with basic services can significantly increase new venture performance. In contrast, we find no evidence that basic services affect performance on their own. Our results are most relevant for ecosystem accelerators that attract young and early-stage businesses and suggest that entrepreneurial capital matters in new ventures. Received September 1, 2015; editorial decision July 30, 2017 by Editor Francesca Cornelli.