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Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(3), 611-641
We derive the optimal investment policy of a risk-averse investor in a market where there is a textbook arbitrage opportunity, but where liabilities must be secured by collateral. We find that it is often optimal to underinvest in the arbitrage by taking a smaller position than collateral constraints allow. Even when the optimal policy is followed, the arbitrage portfolio typically experiences losses before the final convergence date. In fact, its initial performance may be indistinguishable from that of a conventional portfolio with a poor track record. These results have important implications for the role of arbitrageurs in financial markets.

Board Composition, Board Effectiveness, and the Observed Form of Takeover Bids

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(4), 1185-1215
We show that bidding firms consider target board characteristics when deciding takeover offer types and initial offer premiums. We study a sample of 436 proposed negotiated mergers and bypass offers. Firms with individuals holding the titles of both chief executive officer (CEO) and board chair are more likely to receive bypass offers. These offers are more likely to be successful and generate higher target shareholder gains over the takeover offer period. When the target's board is independent, the target is less likely to receive a high premium and the offer is less likely to succeed.

Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(2), 545-580
This article develops a theory of multiunit auctions where short squeezes can occur in the secondary market. Both uniform and discriminatory auctions are studied and bidders can submit multiple bids. We show that bidders with short and long preauction positions have different valuations in an otherwise common value setting. Discriminatory auctions lead to more short squeezing and higher revenue than uniform auctions, ceteris paribus. Asymptotically, as the auction size approaches infinity, the two formats lead to equivalent outcomes. Shorts employ more aggressive equilibrium bidding strategies. Most longs strategically choose to be passive. Free riding on a squeeze by small, long players has no impact on these results, but affects revenue in discriminatory auctions.

Board Composition, Board Effectiveness, and the Observed Form of Takeover Bids

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(4), 1185-1215
We show that bidding firms consider target board characteristics when deciding takeover offer types and initial offer premiums. We study a sample of 436 proposed negotiated mergers and bypass offers. Firms with individuals holding the titles of both chief executive officer (CEO) and board chair are more likely to receive bypass offers. These offers are more likely to be successful and generate higher target shareholder gains over the takeover offer period. When the target's board is independent, the target is less likely to receive a high premium and the offer is less likely to succeed.

Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(4), 1043-1071
The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicated to technical analysis by practitioners and academic theories of market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We explore a previously unexamined feature of technical analysis–namely its relation to liquidity provision. We demonstrate that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. Furthermore, we show that these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the limit order book.

Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(3), 611-641
We derive the optimal investment policy of a risk-averse investor in a market where there is a textbook arbitrage opportunity, but where liabilities must be secured by collateral. We find that it is often optimal to underinvest in the arbitrage by taking a smaller position than collateral constraints allow. Even when the optimal policy is followed, the arbitrage portfolio typically experiences losses before the final convergence date. In fact, its initial performance may be indistinguishable from that of a conventional portfolio with a poor track record. These results have important implications for the role of arbitrageurs in financial markets.

Multiple Unit Auctions and Short Squeezes

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(2), 545-580 open access
This article develops a theory of multiunit auctions where short squeezes can occur in the secondary market. Both uniform and discriminatory auctions are studied and bidders can submit multiple bids. We show that bidders with short and long preauction positions have different valuations in an otherwise common value setting. Discriminatory auctions lead to more short squeezing and higher revenue than uniform auctions, ceteris paribus. Asymptotically, as the auction size approaches infinity, the two formats lead to equivalent outcomes. Shorts employ more aggressive equilibrium bidding strategies. Most longs strategically choose to be passive. Free riding on a squeeze by small, long players has no impact on these results, but affects revenue in discriminatory auctions.

Technical Analysis and Liquidity Provision

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(4), 1043-1071
The apparent conflict between the level of resources dedicated to technical analysis by practitioners and academic theories of market efficiency is a long-standing puzzle. We explore a previously unexamined feature of technical analysis — namely its relation to liquidity provision. We demonstrate that support and resistance levels coincide with peaks in depth on the limit order book and moving average forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. Furthermore, we show that these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the limit order book.