This article develops restrictions that arbitrage-constrained bond prices impose on the short-term rate process in order to be consistent with given dynamic properties of the term structure of interest rates. The central focus is the relationship between bond prices and the short-term rate volatility. In both scalar and multidimensional diffusion settings, typical relationships between bond prices and volatility are generated by joint restrictions on the risk-neutralized drift functions of the state variables and convexity of bond prices with respect to the short-term rate. The theory is illustrated by several examples and is partially extended to accommodate the occurrence of jumps and default.

[In a market with informationally connected traders, the dynamics of volume, price informativeness, price volatility, and liquidity are severely affected by the information linkages every trader experiences with his peers. We show that in the presence of information linkages among traders, volume and price informativeness increase. Moreover, we find that information linkages improve or damage market depth, and lower or boost the traders' profits, according to whether these linkages convey positively or negatively correlated signals. Finally, our model predicts patterns of trade correlation consistent with those identified in the empirical literature: trades generated by "neighbor" traders are positively correlated and trades generated by "distant" traders are negatively correlated.]

This article develops restrictions that arbitrage-constrained bond prices impose on the short-term rate process in order to be consistent with given dynamic properties of the term structure of interest rates. The central focus is the relationship between bond prices and the short-term rate volatility. In both scalar and multidimensional diffusion settings, typical relationships between bond prices and volatility are generated by joint restrictions on the risk-neutralized drift functions of the state variables and convexity of bond prices with respect to the short-term rate. The theory is illustrated by several examples and is partially extended to accommodate the occurrence of jumps and default.

In a market with informationally connected traders, the dynamics of volume, price informativeness, price volatility, and liquidity are severely affected by the information linkages every trader experiences with his peers. We show that in the presence of information linkages among traders, volume and price informativeness increase. Moreover, we find that information linkages improve or damage market depth, and lower or boost the Traders' profits, according to whether these linkages convey positively or negatively correlated signals. Finally, our model predicts patterns of trade correlation consistent with those identified in the empirical literature: trades generated by “neighbor” traders are positively correlated and trades generated by “distant” traders are negatively correlated.