[Should capital cost calculations be based on a global or local market benchmark? The December 2000 redefinition of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) global equity index was a natural experiment addressing this question. It is argued that this event triggered a portfolio shift (by index funds) large enough to affect the residual asset supplies constituting the global and local market benchmarks of all actively managed capital. Changes in the market benchmarks imply distinct and predictable changes to global and local stock betas. Exploring whether global or local beta changes best explain the cross-section of event returns reveals that stocks in developed markets are priced globally and not locally.]

Should capital cost calculations be based on a global or local market benchmark? The December 2000 redefinition of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) global equity index was a natural experiment addressing this question. It is argued that this event triggered a portfolio shift (by index funds) large enough to affect the residual asset supplies constituting the global and local market benchmarks of all actively managed capital. Changes in the market benchmarks imply distinct and predictable changes to global and local stock betas. Exploring whether global or local beta changes best explain the cross-section of event returns reveals that stocks in developed markets are priced globally and not locally. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Recent evidence shows that higher trader participation increases exchange rate volatility. To explore this linkage, we develop a dynamic model of endogenous entry of traders subject to heterogenous expectational errors. Entry of a marginal trader into the market has two effects: it increases the capacity of the market to absorb exogenous supply risk, and at the same time it adds noise and endogenous trading risk. The competitive entry equilibrium is characterized by excessive market entry and excessively volatile prices. A positive tax on entrants can decrease trader participation and volatility while increasing market efficiency. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

[Recent evidence shows that higher trader participation increases exchange rate volatility. To explore this linkage, we develop a dynamic model of endogenous entry of traders subject to heterogenous expectational errors. Entry of a marginal trader into the market has two effects: it increases the capacity of the market to absorb exogenous supply risk, and at the same time it adds noise and endogenous trading risk. The competitive entry equilibrium is characterized by excessive market entry and excessively volatile prices. A positive tax on entrants can decrease trader participation and volatility while increasing market efficiency.]

We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices, and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete foreign exchange (forex) risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, induces the following price and capital flow dynamics: Higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency depreciation. Net equity flows into the foreign market are positively correlated with a foreign currency appreciation. The model predictions are strongly supported at daily, monthly, and quarterly frequencies for 17 OECD countries vis-à-vis the United States. Correlations are strongest after 1990 and for countries with higher equity market capitalization relative to GDP, suggesting that the observed exchange rate dynamics is indeed related to equity market development.

[Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the MSCI Global Equity Index in 2001 and 2002. The index redefinition implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI Global Equity Index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds. Our event study reveals that countries with a relatively increasing equity representation experienced a relative currency appreciation upon announcement of the index change. Moreover, stock markets that are upweighted (downweighted) feature a higher (lower) permanent comovement of their currency with the basket of other MSCI currencies.]

We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency depreciation; 3) net equity flows into the foreign market are positively correlated with a foreign currency appreciation. The model predictions are strongly supported at daily, monthly and quarterly frequencies for 17 OECD countries visà-vis the U.S. Moreover, correlations are strongest after 1990 and for countries with higher market capitalization relative to GDP, suggesting that the observed exchange rate dynamics is indeed related to equity market development. Deniz Igan provided outstanding research assistance. Thanks also to participants in the 2002 NBER IFM summer institute, the 2003 European summer symposium in finanical markets, the FX microstructure conference at the Stockholm Institute for Finance and in seminars at Columbia, Finance sur Seine (Paris), Georgetown, George Washington University, and the IMF. We are both very grateful to the IMF Research Department for its warm hospitality and its stimulating

We examine international equity allocations at the fund level and show how excess foreign returns influence portfolio rebalancing, capital flows, and currencies. Our equilibrium model of incomplete foreign exchange (FX) risk trading where exchange rate risk partially segments international equity markets is consistent with the observed dynamics of equity returns, exchange rates, and fund-level capital flows. We document that rebalancing is more intense under higher FX volatility and find heterogeneous rebalancing behavior across different fund characteristics. A granular instrumental variable approach identifies a positive currency supply elasticity.

Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the MSCI Global Equity Index in 2001 and 2002. The index redefinition implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI Global Equity Index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds. Our event study reveals that countries with a relatively increasing equity representation experienced a relative currency appreciation upon announcement of the index change. Moreover, stock markets that are upweighted (downweighted) feature a higher (lower) permanent comovement of their currency with the basket of other MSCI currencies.

We argue that risk sharing motivates the bankwide structure of bonus pay. In the presence of financial frictions that make external financing costly, the optimal contract between shareholders and employees involves some degree of risk sharing whereby bonus pay partially absorbs negative earnings shocks. Using payroll data for 1.26 million employee-years in all functional divisions of Austrian, German, and Swiss banks, we uncover several empirical patterns in bonus pay that are difficult to rationalize exclusively with incentive theories of bonus pay but that support an important risk sharing motive.