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Estimating the profits from trading strategies

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(4), 1121-1163
Price improvement is the difference between the execution price of an order and the quoted bid or ask when the order was submitted. We show that expected price improvement falls off dramatically as the size of the order approaches the quoted depth, and becomes negative for larger orders. This is particularly important for small firms because the quoted depths are low. Using quoted spreads and depths and our estimate of expected price improvement, we show that trading strategies that attempt to exploit the weekly predictability of small-firm returns would be swamped by transaction costs.

Estimating the Profits from Trading Strategies

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(4), 1121-1163
[Price improvement is the difference between the execution price of an order and the quoted bid or ask when the order was submitted. We show that expected price improvement falls off dramatically as the size of the order approaches the quoted depth, and becomes negative for larger orders. This is particularly important for small firms because the quoted depths are low. Using quoted spreads and depths and our estimate of expected price improvement, we show that trading strategies that attempt to exploit the weekly predictability of small-firm returns would be swamped by transaction costs.]

Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(4), 1097-1120
[Mutual fund attrition can create problems for a researcher because funds that disappear tend to do so due to poor performance. In this article we estimate the size of the bias by tracking all funds that existed at the end of 1976. When a fund merges we calculate the return, taking into account the merger terms. This allows a precise estimate of survivorship bias. In addition, we examine characteristics of both mutual funds that merge and their partner funds. Estimates of survivorship bias over different horizons and using different models to evaluate performance are provided.]

Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(2), 511-555
[Any admissible portfolio performance measure should satisfy four minimal conditions: it assigns zero performance to each reference portfolio and it is linear, continuous, and nontrivial. Such an admissible measure exists if and only if the securities market obeys the law of one price. A positive admissible measure exists if and only if there is no arbitrage. This article characterizes the (infinite) set of admissible performance measures. It is shown that performance evaluation is generally quite arbitrary. A mutual fund data set is also used to demonstrate how the measurement method developed here can be applied.]

Survivor Bias and Mutual Fund Performance

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(4), 1097-1120
Mutual fund attrition can create problems for a researcher because funds that disappear tend to do so due to poor performance. In this article we estimate the size of the bias by tracking all funds that existed at the end of 1976. When a fund merges we calculate the return, taking into account the merger terms. This allows a precise estimate of survivorship bias. In addition, we examine characteristics of both mutual funds that merge and their partner funds. Estimates of survivorship bias over different horizons and using different models to evaluate performance are provided.

Information, Trade, and Derivative Securities

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(1), 163-208
[Hellwig's (1980) model is used to analyze the value of improving trading opportunities by more frequent trading in the underlying asset, or by trading in a derivative asset. With multiple trading sessions, uninformed investors behave as rational trend followers, while more informed investors follow a contrarian strategy. As trading becomes continuous, Pareto efficiency is achieved. With trading in an appropriate derivative security, Pareto efficiency may be achieved in only a single round of trading. All derivative claims are then priced on Black and Scholes (1973) principles and, in the absence of further supply shocks, no trading will take place in subsequent trading rounds.]

Collusion in Uniform-price Auction: Experimental Evidence and Implications for Treasury Auctions

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(3), 757-785
[We provide experimental evidence that nonbinding preplay communication between bidders in auctions of shares facilitates the adoption of equilibrium strategies: collusive strategies in uniform-price auctions, and the unique equilibrium in undominated strategies in discriminatory auctions. When communication between bidders is introduced, clearing prices and auctioneer profits in uniform-price auctions fall below those observed in discriminatory auctions. This evidence suggests that uniform-price auctions of Treasury securities may result in lower revenues than the currently employed discriminatory procedure.]

Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(2), 511-555
Any admissible portfolio performance measure should satisfy four minimal conditions: it assigns zero performance to each reference portfolio and it is linear, continuous, and nontrivial. Such an admissible measure exists if and only if the securities market obeys the law of one price. A positive admissible measure exists if and only if there is no arbitrage. This article characterizes the (infinite) set of admissible performance measures. It is shown that performance evaluation is generally quite arbitrary. A mutual fund data set is also used to demonstrate how the measurement method developed here can be applied.

Information, Trade, and Derivative Securities: Table 1

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(1), 163-208
Hellwig’s (1980) model is used to analyze the value of improving trading opportunities by more frequent trading in the underlying asset, or by trading in a derivative asset. With multiple trading sessions, uninformed investors behave as rational trend followers, while more informed investors follow a contrarian strategy. As trading becomes continuous, Pareto efficiency is achieved. With trading in an appropriate derivative security, Pareto efficiency may be achieved in only a single round of trading. All derivative claims are then priced on Black and Scholes (1973) principles and, in the absence of further supply shocks, no trading will take place in subsequent trading rounds.

Collusion in Uniform-Price Auctions: Experimental Evidence and Implications for Treasury Auctions

Review of Financial Studies 1996 9(3), 757-785
We provide experimental evidence that nonbinding preplay communication between bidders in auctions of shares facilitates the adoption of equilibrium strategies: collusive strategies in uniform-price auctions, and the unique equilibrium in undominated strategies in discriminatory auctions. When communication between bidders is introduced, clearing prices and auctioneer profits in uniform-price auctions fall below those observed in discriminatory auctions. This evidence suggests that uniform-price auctions of Treasury securities may result in lower revenues than the currently employed discriminatory procedure.