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Wealth, Information Acquisition, and Portfolio Choice

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(3), 879-914
I solve (with an approximation) a Grossman-Stiglitz economy under general preferences, thus allowing for wealth effects. Because information generates increasing returns, decreasing absolute risk aversion, in conjunction with the availability of costly information, is sufficient to explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets. One no longer needs to resort to decreasing relative risk aversion, an empirically questionable assumption. Furthermore, I show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations. Finally, I find that the availability of costly information exacerbates wealth inequalities.

Learning from Stock Prices and Economic Growth

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(10), 2998-3059
A competitive stock market is embedded into a neoclassical growth economy to analyze the interplay between the acquisition of information about firms, its partial revelation through stock prices, capital allocation, and income. The stock market allows investors to share their costly private signals in a cost-effective incentive-compatible way. It contributes to economic growth by raising total factor productivity (TFP). A calibration indicates the effect on TFP to be large but that on income to be modest. Several predictions on the evolution of real and financial variables are derived. Finally, the growth impact of two common forms of investor irrationality, overconfidence and inattention, are analyzed.

Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(4), 1681-1717
[Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the MSCI Global Equity Index in 2001 and 2002. The index redefinition implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI Global Equity Index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds. Our event study reveals that countries with a relatively increasing equity representation experienced a relative currency appreciation upon announcement of the index change. Moreover, stock markets that are upweighted (downweighted) feature a higher (lower) permanent comovement of their currency with the basket of other MSCI currencies.]

Wealth, Information Acquisition, and Portfolio Choice

Review of Financial Studies 2004 17(3), 879-914
I solve (with an approximation) a Grossman-Stiglitz economy under general preferences, thus allowing for wealth effects. Because information generates increasing returns, decreasing absolute risk aversion, in conjunction with the availability of costly information, is sufficient to explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets. One no longer needs to resort to decreasing relative risk aversion, an empirically questionable assumption. Furthermore, I show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations. Finally, I find that the availability of costly information exacerbates wealth inequalities.

Fast and Slow Arbitrage: The Predictive Power of (Persistent) Capital Flows for Factor Returns

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(10), 2936-2987
We document that persistent aggregate capital flows to hedge and mutual funds predict monthly factor returns with an out-of-sample R2 reaching 6.6%. Transient flows display no such power despite being more predictable. We show—both empirically and theoretically—that persistent flows’ predictive power stems from active fund managers’ capital constraints. As a result, managers invest persistent, but not transient, capital flows into factor trading strategies, leading to factor-return predictability and factor momentum, yet greater price efficiency. Our key insight is that capital-constrained managers account for both current and anticipated future flows in the arbitrage sector, thereby incorporating the dynamics of capital into their strategies.

Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(4), 1681-1717
Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the MSCI Global Equity Index in 2001 and 2002. The index redefinition implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI Global Equity Index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds. Our event study reveals that countries with a relatively increasing equity representation experienced a relative currency appreciation upon announcement of the index change. Moreover, stock markets that are upweighted (downweighted) feature a higher (lower) permanent comovement of their currency with the basket of other MSCI currencies.

Does Media Coverage of Stocks Affect Mutual Funds' Trading and Performance?

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(12), 3441-3466
We study the relation between mutual fund trades and mass media coverage of stocks. We find that funds exhibit persistent differences in their propensity to buy media-covered stocks. Moreover, this propensity is negatively related to their future performance. Funds in the highest propensity decile underperform funds in the lowest propensity decile by 1.1% to 2.8% per year. These results do not extend to fund sells, likely because of funds' inability to sell short. Overall, the findings suggest that professional investors are subject to limited attention.