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The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(1), 20-55
This article documents the fact that ventures funded by two successful angel groups experience superior outcomes to rejected ventures: They have improved survival, exits, employment, patenting, Web traffic, and financing. We use strong discontinuities in angel-funding behavior over small changes in their collective interest levels to implement a regression discontinuity approach. We confirm the positive effects for venture operations, with qualitative support for a higher likelihood of successful exits. On the other hand, there is no difference in access to additional financing around the discontinuity. This might suggest that financing is not a central input of angel groups.

Index Option Returns: Still Puzzling

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(6), 1915-1928
Previous research indicates mixed conclusions on the potential mispricing of equity index put options. We examine the returns of put writing and other option strategies by comparing historical option returns with returns generated using option pricing models. We find it is generally possible to reject the hypothesis that put returns are consistent with option pricing models. An implication is that the average cost of buying out-of-the-money put options to provide tail-risk protection to a portfolio may include a significant premium. Our results are based on a sample period of 1987–2012 that includes periods of high volatility in equity returns.

The Year-End Trading Activities of Institutional Investors: Evidence from Daily Trades

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(5), 1593-1614
At year-end, some allege that institutional investors try to mislead investors by placing trades that inflate performance (portfolio pumping) or distort reported holdings (window dressing). We contribute direct tests using daily institutional trades and find that year-end price inflation derives from a lack of institutional selling rather than institutional buying. In fact, institutional buying declines at year-end. Consistent with pumping, institutions tend to buy stocks in which they already have large positions. We find no evidence of window dressing, as institutions are not more likely to buy high-past return stocks or sell low-past return stocks at year- or quarter-end.

Ambiguity Aversion and Asset Prices in Production Economies

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(10), 3060-3097 open access
We examine a production-based asset-pricing model with an unobservable mean growth rate following a two-state Markov chain and with an ambiguity-averse representative agent. Our model requires a low coefficient of relative risk aversion to produce: (i) a high equity premium and volatile equity returns, (ii) a low and smooth risk-free rate, (iii) smooth consumption growth and volatile investment growth, (iv) countercyclical equity premium and market price of risk, (v) conditional heteroscedasticity in returns, and (vi) long-horizon predictability of excess returns.

Peer Effects in Risk Aversion and Trust

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(11), 3213-3240
Existing evidence shows that risk aversion and trust are largely determined by environmental factors. We test whether one such factor is peer influence. Using random assignment of MBA students to peer groups and predetermined survey responses of economic attitudes, we find causal evidence of positive peer effects in risk aversion and no effects in trust. After the first year of the MBA program, the difference between an individual and her peers' average risk aversion has shrunk by 41%. Finding no peer effects in trust is consistent with recent research showing that distinct cognitive processes govern risk aversion and trust.

The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: Evidence from Angel Financings

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(1), 20-55 open access
This article documents the fact that ventures funded by two successful angel groups experience superior outcomes to rejected ventures: They have improved survival, exits, employment, patenting, Web traffic, and financing. We use strong discontinuities in angel- funding behavior over small changes in their collective interest levels to implement a regression discontinuity approach. We confirm the positive effects for venture operations, with qualitative support for a higher likelihood of successful exits. On the other hand, there is no difference in access to additional financing around the discontinuity. This might suggest that financing is not a central input of angel groups.

The Year-End Trading Activities of Institutional Investors: Evidence from Daily Trades

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(5), 1593-1614
At year-end, some allege that institutional investors try to mislead investors by placing trades that inflate performance (portfolio pumping) or distort reported holdings (window dressing). We contribute direct tests using daily institutional trades and find that year-end price inflation derives from a lack of institutional selling rather than institutional buying. In fact, institutional buying declines at year-end. Consistent with pumping, institutions tend to buy stocks in which they already have large positions. We find no evidence of window dressing, as institutions are not more likely to buy high-past return stocks or sell low-past return stocks at year- or quarter-end.