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Debt Maturity and the Effects of Growth Opportunities and Liquidity Risk on Leverage

Review of Financial Studies 2002 open access
I test the hypothesis that short debt maturity attenuates the negative effect of growth opportunities on leverage. Using simultaneous equations with leverage and maturity endogenous, I find strong support for an economically significant attenuation effect. The negative effect of growth opportunities on leverage for firms with all shorter-term debt is less than one-sixth as large as the effect for firms with all longer-term debt. Short maturity also increases liquidity risk, however, which negatively affects leverage. The results suggest that firms trade off the cost of underinvestment problems against the cost of liquidity risk when choosing short maturity.

The Informational Efficiency of the Corporate Bond Market: An Intraday Analysis

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(5), 1325-1354
Using a unique dataset based on daily and hourly high-yield bond transaction prices, we find the informational efficiency of corporate bond prices is similar to that of the underlying stocks. We find that stocks do not lead bonds in reflecting firm-specific information. We further examine price behavior around earnings news and find that information is quickly incorporated into both bond and stock prices, even at short return horizons. Finally, we find that measures of market quality are no poorer for the bonds in our sample than for the underlying stocks.

The Effect of Leverage on Bidding Behavior: Theory and Evidence from the FCC Auctions

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(3), 723-750
This is an exploration of how bidding behavior of firms in various auctions is affected by their capital structure. The theoretical model considers a first-price sealed bid and an English auction. We find that as debt levels increase, firms tend to reduce their bids. The lower bids give the competition incentives to reduce their bids as well. These results are investigated empirically using data from the 1994-1995 FCC spectrum auctions. Consistent with the theoretical model, higher debt levels of the bidding firm and of the competition tend to lead to lower bids. Additional determinants of bidding behavior in these auctions are also analyzed.

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(1), 319-347 open access
This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates—a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers’ willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(1), 319-347
This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates-a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

The Informational Efficiency of the Corporate Bond Market: An Intraday Analysis

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(5), 1325-1354
Using a unique dataset based on daily and hourly high-yield bond transaction prices, we find the informational efficiency of corporate bond prices is similar to that of the underlying stocks. We find that stocks do not lead bonds in reflecting firm-specific information. We further examine price behavior around earnings news and find that information is quickly incorporated into both bond and stock prices, even at short return horizons. Finally, we find that measures of market quality are no poorer for the bonds in our sample than for the underlying stocks.

The Effect of Leverage on Bidding Behavior: Theory and Evidence from the FCC Auctions

Review of Financial Studies 2002 15(3), 723-750 open access
This paper investigates how firms’ bidding behavior in various auctions is affected by capital structure. A theoretical model is developed where the first price sealed bid and the English auction are examined. We find as debt levels increase, firms tend to decrease their bids. The lower bids give the competition incentives to decrease their bid as well. These results are then investigated empirically using the recent FCC spectrum auctions. Consistent with the theoretical model, larger debt levels of the bidding firm and the competition tend to lead to lower bids. Additional determinants of bidding behavior in these auctions are also analyzed.