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Unsmoothing Returns of Illiquid Funds

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(7), 2110-2155
Funds investing in illiquid assets report returns with spurious autocorrelation. Consequently, investors need to unsmooth these funds’ returns when evaluating their risk exposures. We show that funds with similar investments share a common source of spurious autocorrelation not fully resolved by traditional unsmoothing methods and thereby leading to underestimation of systematic risk. Thus, we propose a generalized unsmoothing technique and apply it to hedge funds and private commercial real estate funds. Our method significantly improves the measurement of funds’ risk exposures and risk-adjusted performance, especially for highly illiquid funds. Overall, the average illiquid fund alpha is lower than previously thought.

Banking on Carbon: Corporate Lending and Cap-and-Trade Policy

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(5), 1640-1684
We estimate the effect of carbon pricing policy on bank credit to greenhouse-gas-emitting firms. Our analyses exploit the geographic restrictions inherent in California’s cap-and-trade bill and a discontinuity in the embedded free permit threshold of the federal Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill. Affected high emission firms face shorter loan maturities, lower access to permanent forms of bank financing, higher interest rates, and higher participation of shadow banks in their lending syndicates. These effects are concentrated among private firms, while credit terms of public firms are largely unaffected. Overall, we show that banks respond quickly to realizations of transition risk.