Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT Economics challenge the specification of discretionary accrual models. Since rent-seeking firms pursue differentiated business strategies, firms in the same industry experience idiosyncratic shocks due to heterogeneous economic fundamentals and hence have different accrual-generating processes. We present evidence that idiosyncratic shocks are widespread, propagate through multiple years of financial statements, and reduce accrual models' goodness of fit. This not only affects abnormal accrual estimates for the firm experiencing shocks, but also affects measurement of abnormal accruals for other firms in the industry. We show that idiosyncratic shocks not only add noise to abnormal accruals, but can also exacerbate bias in both unsigned and signed abnormal accruals. We propose ways to reduce accrual model misspecification. JEL Classifications: G30; M41.

ABSTRACT We study a disclosure decision for a firm's manager with many sources of private information. The presence of multiple numerical signals provides the manager with an opportunity to hide information via aggregation, presenting net amounts in order to show information in its best light. We show that this ability to aggregate fundamentally changes the nature of voluntary disclosure, due to the market's inability to verify that a report is free of strategic aggregation. We find that, in equilibrium, the manager fully discloses if and only if the manager's private information makes the firm look sufficiently weak. By separating bad news from good news, a disaggregate report informs the market of as much offsetting news as possible, revealing how close the news is to a neutral benchmark. The result is, therefore, pooling at the top and separation at the bottom, the opposite of what transpires with a single news source. JEL Classifications: M41; D82; D83.

ABSTRACT Concern about effective auditing of fair value measurements (FVMs) has risen in recent decades. Building on prior interview-based and experimental research, we provide an engagement-level analysis of challenging FVMs, using quantitative and qualitative data on audit phases from risk assessment to booking adjustments. Challenging FVMs have high estimation uncertainty, high subjectivity, significant/complex assumptions, and multiple valuation techniques. Estimation uncertainty is associated with higher inherent risk assessments, which are, in turn, predictive of client problems identified during the engagement. The use of a valuation specialist by auditors, associated with higher inherent risk and client specialist use, is a key decision: procedures performed by specialists have the highest yield in identifying problems. Auditor-client discussion of an adjustment increases with problem identification and auditors' expressions of residual concern about uncertainty post-testing. However, booked audit adjustments are infrequent; the only factors explaining income-decreasing adjustments are better evidential support and breadth of problems identified.

ABSTRACT Local governments play dual, but conflicting, roles in China's tax system. That is, they are both tax collectors and controlling shareholders of firms subject to tax payments. We investigate how local governments balance their tax collection and tax avoidance incentives. We find that the conflicts between central and local governments arising from the 2002 tax sharing reform have led to more tax avoidance by local government-controlled firms, particularly when the local government's ownership percentage of the firms is higher than the tax sharing ratio. We also find evidence that the overall level of tax avoidance by local government-controlled firms in a region is positively associated with local fiscal deficits. As a high level of government ownership of corporations and intergovernmental tax sharing are common phenomena in many transitional economies, this study offers valuable insights into how the dual roles played by local governments affect tax policy enforcement in these economies. JEL Classifications: H26; H71; M40; G38.

ABSTRACT We propose two explanations for the previously documented relation between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation: one based on firms changing their investment in response to earnings growth, and the other based on consumers varying their consumption in response to wealth effects of profitability growth. As the supply of goods and services is relatively inelastic in the short run, our arguments imply that changes to near-term demand for investment (consumption) will affect the prices of investment (consumption) goods and services. Consistent with the investment-based argument, we find that profitability changes predict investment and Producer Price Index (PPI) shifts in subsequent quarters. Our analyses also reveal that aggregate earnings growth predicts future investment and PPI forecast errors. We find, at best, weak evidence for the consumption-based link between aggregate earnings growth and future inflation.

ABSTRACT We use daily page views of analyst estimates, ratings, and target prices on Yahoo Finance to understand when users seek sell-side analyst research. Demand for this information is most pronounced on days with earnings announcements, management guidance, and All-Star analyst reports. Surprisingly, demand does not increase at Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings. While the overall demand for analyst estimates is 19.9 percent less than for analyst ratings and target prices, on earnings announcement and management guidance days, this preference is reversed. Moreover, the demand for analyst information substantially trumps that of SEC filings and financial statement information. JEL Classifications: M41; G14; G24.

ABSTRACT We report the results of four experiments investigating the relationship between (1) the quality of an audit, (2) jurors' assessments of the standard of prudent care (SOC) against which audit quality is compared, and (3) jurors' negligence verdicts. Experiment 1 operationalizes audit quality by varying the sample size used in audit testing, and provides evidence that jurors anchor their assessment of SOC on audit quality, producing a “competitive mediation” in which audit quality reduces the potential for a negligence verdict directly, but increases that potential indirectly by increasing SOC. Experiment 2 generalizes this finding to a setting that operationalizes audit quality by varying the size of adjustment the auditor required. Experiments 3 and 4 extend these results to a setting in which SOC is elicited after jurors make negligence verdicts. Overall, these experiments provide insight into the role of SOC in constraining and justifying negligence verdicts. Data Availability: Contact the authors.

ABSTRACT We provide new evidence about how analysts incorporate and improve on management ETR forecasts. Quarterly ETR reporting under the integral method provides mandatory point-estimate forecasts by management, but firms must record certain “discrete” tax items fully in the quarter in which they occur, polluting these forecasts. We investigate management ETR accuracy, analysts' decisions to mimic management's estimate, analysts' accuracy relative to each other or to management, and dispersion. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that analysts deviate from management more and are more accurate relative to management as complexity increases, with real effects on EPS accuracy and dispersion. In contrast to prior research that analysts ignore or are confused by taxes, we provide evidence that analysts pay attention to taxes and improve on management estimates. Based on our evidence that management's quarterly ETRs have less predictive value in the presence of discrete items, we suggest standard-setters reexamine the discrete item exception to require more disclosure.

ABSTRACT The PCAOB recently considered implementing mandatory audit firm rotation in hopes of better aligning auditors' interests with investors' interests, suggesting that the PCAOB views long auditor tenure as problematic. However, the accounting profession argues that long tenure actually improves audit quality. This study provides insight into investors' views by evaluating the market's reaction to events related to the potential adoption of rotation that occurred between 2011 and 2013. The results provide some evidence that the market reacts negatively (positively) to events that increased (decreased) the likelihood of rotation, although these results are sensitive to the market index used to calculate abnormal returns. More importantly, particularly given the lack of a U.S.-specific control group, cross-sectional tests provide strong evidence that the market reaction is more negative (positive) on dates that increased (decreased) the likelihood of rotation given longer auditor tenure. Moreover, we also find that the market reaction is more negative (positive) on dates that increased (decreased) the likelihood of rotation given a Big 4 auditor. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the text.

ABSTRACT It is well recognized that stock prices provide relevant feedback that can guide future firm decisions. This paper develops a model to examine how accounting disclosures affect the decision-usefulness of such stock market reactions. We demonstrate that information in accounting reports can prove useful because it helps observers better interpret and isolate the decision-relevant information embedded in the ensuing stock price reaction. This leads to natural synergies between accounting reports and stock prices in directing firm strategies—the more forward-looking information that can potentially be gleaned from stock prices, the more the firm will invest in improving precision of accounting disclosures even when such disclosures pertain to unrelated current activities.