Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT: Despite a belief among corporate executives that smooth earnings paths lead to a lower cost of equity capital, I find no relation between earnings smoothness and average stock returns over the last 30 years. In other words, owners of firms with volatile earnings are not compensated with higher returns, as one would expect if volatile earnings lead to greater risk exposure. Although prior empirical work links smoother earnings to a lower implied cost of capital, I offer evidence that this link is driven primarily by optimism in analysts' long-term earnings forecasts. This optimism yields target prices and implied cost of capital estimates that are systematically too high for firms with volatile earnings. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the notion that attempts to smooth earnings can lead to a lower cost of equity capital.

ABSTRACT: Accounting should pay more attention to errors, as errors are essential for the updating of beliefs. Accounting is an information system, and errors are the carriers of information according to Bayes’ Theorem. Accountants are primarily concerned with the mean (value), but the variance of accounting numbers is equally important. Only autocorrelation makes historical accounting relevant for decision purposes. Endogenous errors of accounting are more common than acknowledged. First, the accounting model is linear, whereas the world is nonlinear. Second, accounting is not the only information channel, and accountants must consider the role of accounting when it supplements other information sources. This commentary discusses the consequences of endogenous errors. Errors are inherent to accounting, and accountants must address them.

ABSTRACT: Managers sometimes implement accounting standards (such as the lease standard) opportunistically to move debt off balance sheet. Regulators and standard-setters are considering the adoption of principles-based accounting standards to reduce such opportunism. We report the results of an experiment in which experienced financial managers, with incentives to structure a transaction off balance sheet, take a reporting position on how a lease is to be reported. We manipulate the type of accounting standards (principles-based, rules-based) and the type of auditor (principles-oriented, rules-oriented, or client-oriented). Results show that for a rules-based standard, auditor-type does not influence participants’ propensity to report the transaction off balance sheet. However, for a principles-based standard, auditor-type matters in that this propensity is lowest when the auditor is principles-oriented as opposed to rules- or client-oriented. Our results suggest that a move toward more principles-based standards is likely to result in improved financial reporting quality only when there is a corresponding shift in auditors’ mindsets toward being more principles-oriented.

ABSTRACT: This study focuses on the persistence and market value implications of a subset of nonrecurring charges that are atypical due to repeated occurrence. The increased recurrence of supposedly nonrecurring items perhaps reflects managerial shifting of (more permanent) ordinary expenses to a transitory category or, alternatively, may reflect an environment where these items naturally occur more frequently. Either scenario suggests that these repetitive charges have future earnings implications dramatically different from truly nonrecurring events and should therefore be valued more like a recurring component of earnings. Consistent with this notion, we find that as the frequency of reporting negative special items increases (measured by the presence of multiple prior charges), the persistence of these items significantly increases with respect to future earnings. Our evidence also suggests that the valuation multiple on such charges increases with frequency. That is, the market values “recurring nonrecurring” items more like the other components of recurring earnings.

ABSTRACT: This research examines whether investors adjust their assessments of investment risk in response to material control weakness disclosures, the pervasiveness of material control weaknesses, and the detail of explanation provided regarding the pervasiveness of material control weaknesses. Findings from a laboratory experiment with 97 nonprofessional investors, a second experiment with 53 nonprofessional investors, and surveys of 47 investors and 28 Fortune 500 directors confirm prior archival findings that investors adjust their investment risk assessments in response to material weakness disclosures. More importantly, we find evidence of an interactive effect of material control weakness pervasiveness and disclosure detail that is counter to the expected benefits of expanded disclosure desired by corporate directors. When material weakness disclosures include specific and detailed discussion of the pervasiveness of control weaknesses, investors increase assessments of investment risk for less pervasive weaknesses and decrease assessments of risk for more pervasive weaknesses. Results indicate that these findings are driven by different levels of investor trust in management.

ABSTRACT: This study models a manager who privately reports earnings to an independent audit committee that, after its own due diligence, modifies the report for public release to investors. The audit committee alters the reporting and valuation dynamics by attempting to remove the manager's reporting bias, but then presents the information it has collected with its own bias. The audit committee's presence changes the impact of penalties and incentives on reporting, valuation, and due-diligence activities. For example, increasing penalties can sometimes degrade the reporting process. Our simultaneous consideration of the manager, audit committee, and investors provides a new framework for reporting and valuation, and sheds light on empirical earnings quality research that has largely studied the management and audit effects separately.

ABSTRACT: We compare the quality of accounting numbers produced by two types of public firms—those with publicly traded equity and those with privately held equity that are nonetheless considered public by virtue of having publicly traded debt. We develop and test two hypotheses. The “demand” hypothesis holds that earnings of public equity firms are of higher quality than earnings of private equity firms due to stronger demand by shareholders and creditors for quality reporting. In contrast, the “opportunistic behavior” hypothesis posits that public equity firms, because their managers have a greater incentive to manage earnings, have lower earnings quality than their private equity peers. The results indicate that, consistent with the “opportunistic behavior” hypothesis, private equity firms have higher quality accruals and a lower propensity to manage income than public equity firms. We further find that public equity firms report more conservatively, in line with their greater litigation risk and agency costs.

ABSTRACT: Prior research shows that an audit supervisor’s active intervention in a subordinate’s judgment distorts that judgment. However, subordinates’ judgments are only one input into audit team judgments. How do supervisors finalize audit team judgments after actively intervening in their subordinates’ judgments? In an experiment using audit teams, supervisors with weaker or stronger goals to reach a client-preferred conclusion either were or were not asked to first actively coach a subordinate’s judgment (i.e., active intervention) before reviewing it and finalizing the audit team’s judgment. Supervisors’ intervention influenced subordinates’ inputs, which, in turn, supervisors incorporated into their final judgments. More interestingly, intervention biased supervisors’ final judgments, controlling for supervisor directional goal strength and for concurrent effects on subordinates’ inputs. However, supervisors distorted their judgments less as they perceived a larger technical knowledge advantage over subordinates. In a second experiment, auditors appear aware of the bias-reducing knowledge advantage effects but unaware of the bias-increasing active intervention effects. We discuss implications for audit team judgments and audit quality control.

ABSTRACT: We conduct an experiment to investigate whether the effects of an SAS No. 90-like quality assessment standard (QAS) on auditors’ decision to accept a client-preferred accounting method is jointly moderated by the nature of advice from an audit firm’s technical department and the strength of the client’s justification. Results indicate that, in the absence of advice, the presence of QAS does not affect auditors’ decision, regardless of client justification strength. However, in the presence of advice from the technical department, the presence of QAS significantly reduces auditors’ propensity to accept the client-preferred method, but only when the advice explicitly recommends the use of the most appropriate method and the client’s justification is strong. These findings demonstrate the complementary roles that professional standards and audit firms’ technical departments play in enhancing the quality of auditors’ decisions, and indicate that the nature of advice matters.

ABSTRACT: This study examines whether the market reacts more strongly to earnings forecast revisions when financial analysts supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts. I find that earnings forecast revisions supplemented with sales forecast revisions have a greater impact on security prices than do stand-alone earnings forecast revisions, controlling for the incremental information content in sales forecasts. Supplemented earnings forecasts are more accurate ex post, controlling for other individual analyst characteristics. Results are robust to controlling for earnings persistence and time effects. Taken as a whole, financial analysts are more likely to supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts when they have better information. Supplementary sales forecasts appear to lend credibility to earnings forecasts because financial analysts provide sales forecasts when they are more informed.