This study examines whether financial accounting standards moderate the effectiveness of tax policy. Specifically, we examine whether myopic managers' focus on short-term financial reporting reduces the effectiveness of tax subsidies that incentivize innovation. We employ a novel setting, the issuance of Financial Interpretation No. 48 (FIN 48), which changed the financial reporting for some important, yet uncertain, tax incentives to innovate. For firms most affected by the standard change, we find evidence of reduced investment in innovation, reduced sensitivity of investment to tax incentives, and reduced future innovative output. Consistent with earnings myopia, we find the effect is more pronounced in firms with higher levels of transient institutional ownership and newly vesting equity compensation. These results indicate financial reporting myopia has real effects on innovation and can reduce tax policy effectiveness. The results further suggest that tax policymakers should consider both financial reporting and cash flow incentives in designing policy.

We test whether tax avoidance strategies are associated with greater firm risk. We find that low tax rates tend to be more persistent than high tax rates and that measures of tax avoidance commonly used in the literature are generally not associated with either future tax rate volatility or future overall firm risk. Our evidence suggests that, on average, corporate tax avoidance is accomplished using strategies that are persistent and do not increase firm risk. We also find that the volatility of cash tax rates is associated with future stock volatility, suggesting that tax rate volatility and overall firm risk are related.

We provide evidence about allocations of cash flow freed up by not paying taxes (“tax-related cash”). Uncertainty about future repayments suggests firms may use tax-related cash more cautiously than other cash flow. We utilize a flow-of-funds model from finance to quantify the relative amounts of tax-related cash associated with various potential uses of operating cash flow. We find firms allocate tax-related cash differently than other after-tax cash flow. Prior studies find tax avoiders hold more cash, and our results suggest this is because firms invest less (and save more) tax-related cash. We also find that the allocation of tax-related cash varies with relative financial constraints, economic uncertainty, and firms' multinational status in ways consistent with prior findings. For example, firms facing relatively higher levels of financial constraints invest a lower (higher) percentage of tax-related cash in capital expenditures (marketable securities and R&D), possibly to preserve funds for future investment opportunities.

Using IRS tax return data for private C corporations, we examine the relation between GAAP audits and IRS enforcement outcomes. Among IRS-audited tax returns, we find that those with audited GAAP financial statements have fewer and smaller proposed deficiencies. These effects persist after controlling for tax preparers. Furthermore, we estimate that the explanatory power of audited GAAP financial statements is comparable to that of external debtholders. Audited GAAP financial statements are also associated with a higher likelihood of unagreed proposed deficiencies, more detailed tax return disclosures, and fewer IRS audit hours, all of which are consistent with more defensible tax positions. Tax returns with audited GAAP financial statements exhibit greater initial voluntary compliance and generate smaller proposed deficiencies per IRS audit hour. These results inform private firms as they weigh the costs and benefits of financial statement audits and the IRS as it allocates enforcement resources. Data Availability: The IRS provided confidential tax information to Michele S. Mullaney pursuant to an agreement under the Intergovernmental Personnel Act of 1970 through the Statistics of Income Division’s Joint Statistical Research Program.

We examine the relations between tax avoidance and two components of firm risk (priced risk and idiosyncratic risk) using latent class mixture models. OLS regressions suggest that tax avoidance is negatively related to both priced risk and idiosyncratic risk. However, results from latent class mixture models reveal that 35.6 (58) percent of the sample exhibits a significant positive association between tax avoidance and priced (idiosyncratic) risk and firm characteristics are strikingly different across the latent classes. We use these differences to develop parsimonious models to predict latent class assignments, which we then use to demonstrate that firms predicted to have a positive relation between tax avoidance and priced risk or idiosyncratic risk have more negative future tax outcomes, including higher relative cash tax rate volatility, larger additions to tax reserves, larger payouts to tax authorities, and more negative tax-related news coverage over the following three years. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to develop a measure of effective tax planning that is theoretically aligned with the Scholes-Wolfson paradigm and captures how efficiently firms maximize after-tax returns given their operating, investing, and financing decisions. We then (1) document that the measure is associated with higher after-tax returns to provide assurance DEA achieves its objective in our setting, (2) demonstrate that the measure is incremental to cash ETRs in predicting after-tax returns, (3) validate the measure by showing its association with lower tax and non-tax costs, and (4) provide evidence that the measure captures something about taxes distinct from overall firm performance. This measure is useful to researchers given the known limitations of ETRs as a measure of tax planning. Data Availability: Tax Effectiveness values are available on the authors' websites.

We investigate the relation between corporate tax payments and corporate social responsibility. Because existing theory and empirical studies find inconsistent evidence on the relation between these constructs, we investigate whether the two activities act as complements or substitutes. We estimate the relation between measures of corporate social responsibility and (1) the amount of corporate taxes paid, and (2) the amount invested in tax lobbying activities using both ordinary least squares and a system of simultaneous equations. We find consistent evidence that corporate social responsibility is negatively related to five-year cash effective tax rates and positively related to tax lobbying expenditures. Our evidence suggests that, on average, corporate social responsibility and tax payments act as substitutes. Data Availability: Data are available from sources identified in the paper.

We investigate (1) how well a machine learning algorithm can predict one-year ahead effective tax rates (ETRs) and (2) which items in the financial statements and notes are most useful for these predictions. We compare our machine-generated ETR predictions with those from ETRs implied by analysts’ earnings forecasts and find the algorithm’s predictions are less biased, more precise, and explain more of the variance in future ETRs. We then use Explainable AI (based on Shapley values) to measure the usefulness of each disclosure item in the algorithm’s predictions. We find that while some tax-related items are useful, others offer minimal value. Using the machine learning algorithm’s use of information as a benchmark, we then further use Shapley values to examine which information is underweighted or overweighted by analysts. Overall, our results help inform standard setters on the relevance of certain tax disclosures in achieving the objective of predicting future ETRs.