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Forecasting without Consequence? Evidence on the Properties of Retiring CEOs' Forecasts of Future Earnings

The Accounting Review 2013 88(6), 1909-1937
We investigate whether retiring CEOs engage in opportunistic terminal-year forecasting behavior and the circumstances in which such behavior is likely to be more or less pronounced. Using a within-CEO empirical design, we find that retiring CEOs are more likely to issue forecasts of future earnings, and that they issue such forecasts more frequently in their terminal year relative to other years during their tenure with the firm. Further, retiring CEOs' terminal-year forecasts of future earnings are more likely to convey good news and are more optimistically biased relative to pre-terminal years. Opportunistic terminal-year forecasting behavior is: (1) more pronounced in the presence of higher CEO equity incentives and when discretionary expenditures are cut in the terminal year, and (2) less pronounced in the presence of stronger monitoring mechanisms, such as higher institutional ownership. Collectively, our results provide evidence on a potential implication of the CEO horizon problem that has not been investigated previously. Data Availability: All data used in the study are publicly available from the sources cited in the text.

Examining the Potential Benefits of Internal Control Monitoring Technology

The Accounting Review 2010 85(3), 1001-1034 open access
We analyze the potential benefits that firms can realize from implementing technology specifically aimed at monitoring the effectiveness of their internal control systems. The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission asserts that effective internal control monitoring should enhance the efficiency of internal control processes, and, in turn, the assurance over such processes (COSO 2009a). We develop hypotheses to test the realization of these potential benefits. Specifically, we identify a sample of firms that implemented internal control monitoring technology in response to the internal control requirements of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Consistent with our hypotheses, we document that the implementation of internal control monitoring technology is associated with lower likelihood of material weaknesses, smaller increases in audit fees, and smaller increases in audit delays during the post-SOX time period. We discuss the potential implications of our findings for research related to continuous monitoring, client-provided assurance assistance, and information technology governance.