This study shows that the recent trajectory of a firm's profits predicts future profitability and stock returns. The predictive information contained in the trend of profitability is not subsumed by the level of profitability, earnings momentum, or other well-known determinants of stock returns. The profit trend also predicts the earnings surprise one quarter later, and analyst forecast errors over the following 12 months, suggesting that sophisticated investors underreact to the information in the profit trend. On the other hand, we find no evidence of investor overreaction, and our results cannot be explained by well-known risk factors.

We document time-varying interrelations between aggregate funding conditions and the impact of operating leverage (OL) on stock returns. OL represents a primitive source of risk, which helps explain the well established unconditional relation between OL and future returns. However, the outperformance of firms with high OL occurs exclusively during periods of unconstrained funding. Although high OL represents operational inflexibility, when the Fed eases funding constraints, improved capital availability mitigates this inflexibility. Consequently, investors bid up the prices of stocks with high OL when aggregate funding constraints are loosened to reflect their lower risk and greater expected performance in unconstrained periods. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text.