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Analysts' Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading

The Accounting Review 2004 79(1), 125-149
Using unique data on brokerage-firm trading, I examine whether analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations affect their brokerage firms' share of trading in the forecast stocks. I find that individual analyst's forecasts that differ from the consensus forecast generate significant brokerage-firm trading in the forecast stocks in the two weeks after the forecast release date, affirming that analysts' forecasts affect their brokers' commission revenue. However, I find no evidence that analysts' forecast errors—the difference between forecast earnings and actual earnings—increase brokerage-firm trading. This result suggests that analysts cannot generate trade for their employers simply by adding error to their forecasts. I find that buy recommendations generate relatively more trading, both buying and selling, through the analyst's brokerage firm. Collectively, these results suggest that analysts can generate higher trading commissions through their positive stock recommendations than by biasing their forecasts.

Customer-Base Concentration, Profitability, and the Relationship Life Cycle

The Accounting Review 2016 91(3), 883-906
Using a recently expanded dataset on supplier-customer links, we introduce a dynamic relationship life-cycle hypothesis. We hypothesize that the relation between customer-base concentration and profitability is significantly negative in the early years of the relationship, but becomes positive as the relationship matures. The key driver of this dynamic is the customer-specific investments that the relationship entails. These investments result in larger fixed costs, greater operating leverage, and a higher probability of losses early in the relationship, but can significantly benefit the firm as the relationship matures. Although many of these money-losing firms in early-stage relationships were not studied in Patatoukas (2012), we find a market reaction to increases in customer concentration similar to that in his paper. This result provides powerful confirmatory evidence of the value of customer concentration. We document one of the intangible benefits of customer concentration, technology sharing, and show how this benefit increases as the relationship matures.