We examine whether management forecast errors (MFEs), which are traditionally interpreted as backward-looking indicators of how well forecasts preempted earnings announcements, also operate as forward-looking measures that aid with predicting future earnings. This possibility arises if an MFE represents unrealized revenues or expenses a manager originally anticipated to occur in the forecast period but that ultimately occur in subsequent periods. Consistent with this possibility, we document that optimistic MFEs contain incremental information over current earnings for predicting future earnings realizations. This finding does not extend to pessimistic MFEs, consistent with such errors reflecting expectations management. The predictive information in optimistic MFEs is negatively related to managers' incentives to intentionally bias the forecast and is positively related to managerial ability. Analysts' post-earnings announcement forecasts for the subsequent period overestimate the future realization of MFEs, but such overestimation is less severe when managers issue timely post-earnings announcement forecast revisions for subsequent periods. Data Availability: Data used in this study are publicly available from sources identified in the text.

Prior research documents large, persistent productivity dispersion even within narrowly defined industries, suggesting the presence of frictions that impede the efficient allocation of resources. In this paper, we consider the role of information frictions. We posit that high-quality financial reporting with respect to firm productivity can mitigate information frictions and hence facilitate the efficient allocation of resources across firms. Using a large sample of firms in the manufacturing sector, we find evidence consistent with our prediction—industries with higher productivity informativeness tend to have smaller within-industry productivity dispersion. We further find that this relation is stronger in industries with greater dependence on external financing, suggesting that reporting quality affects allocation efficiency, at least in part, through the capital market channel. These findings suggest that the extent to which financial reporting is informative about productivity can affect resource allocation efficiency and hence have real effects at the macro level.