Knowledge that Transforms

We show theoretically and empirically that the durations of corporate securities are monotonically related to their capital structure priority, with equity often having a negative duration. The magnitude of this effect increases with firm leverage. We use these insights to challenge existing results on stock-bond comovements and factor pricing. For example, though overlooked, higher leverage and lower priority reduce the correlation between corporate security and government bond returns, and these variables explain time-series and cross-sectional variation in correlations; traditional market model regressions significantly understate corporate bond betas; and regressions on standard term and default factors dramatically overstate interest rate and default risk.

Valuation risk of a security—uncertainty about its fair value—is a subject of considerable concern in the mutual fund industry. If funds report different values for identical securities, investors cannot easily compare their performance. Yet it is not unusual to see identical illiquid stocks, small-cap stocks, stocks with high analyst dispersion, stocks with less analyst coverage, and newly listed stocks valued differently across mutual funds. An equity fund that has positive price dispersion in its portfolio holdings, that performs poorly, that belongs to a fund family with an inclination for aggressive reporting, that holds more stocks subject to stale prices, that holds more pre-IPO firms, or that experiences net outflows will tend to show positive price dispersion again in the next quarter. This behavior is significant in a volatile market. Aggressive reporting helps funds gain in the mutual fund tournament.

This paper studies the relation between 36 firm-level characteristics and stock returns in 48 countries using instrumented principal components analysis. A non-U.S. country-neutral conditional factor model performs well in describing risk and returns and generates small and statistically insignificant anomaly intercepts when allowing for three or more latent factors. The non-U.S. model performs better in emerging than in developed markets, while showing substantial differences across countries. On average, only 10 characteristics significantly contribute to the models’ performance. Market beta, momentum, and firm size characteristics instrument for systemic exposure in U.S. and non-U.S. models, while investment and book-to-market do not. (JEL G11, G12, G14, G15) Received January 28, 2021; editorial decision July 30, 2021

The conditional covariance between the market return and its variance, which we refer to as the leverage effect, is positively related to the variance risk premium. It contains incremental information about the variance risk premium after controlling for other return moments and additional variables suggested by the literature as determinants of the variance risk premium. This empirical finding is supported by theory: the pricing of volatility risk is the economic channel behind the strong positive relation between the two variables. We use this relation to construct a time series of the variance risk premium dating back to 1926. (JEL G12, G13) Received February 7, 2020; editorial decision September 01, 2021.

We examine a simple measure of operating leverage: the ratio of fixed costs (measured by depreciation and amortization plus selling, general, and administrative expenses) to the market (or book) value of assets. We find that this measure of operating leverage positively predicts returns. This operating leverage measure is not explained by common factors and performs better than the traditional measures of operating leverage. Furthermore, an exploratory two-factor model with the operating leverage factor works at least as well as, but does not subsume, the Fama and French five-factor model.

The Society for Financial Society (SFS) is a global, nonprofit academic society in finance. It owns and runs three academic journals: (1) the Review of Asset Pricing Studies, (2) the Review of Corporate Finance Studies, and (3) the Review of Financial Studies. It also organizes two annual academic conferences: (1) the SFS Cavalcade Asia-Pacific and (2) the SFS Cavalcade North America. It also runs several smaller, specialized conferences and financially supports and co-sponsors other independent conferences. Its governing board is the SFS Council. This annual report provides an overview of SFS activities during 2019-2020, including all three journals, both Cavalcade conferences, and the SFS financial and policy report. The purpose of this annual report is to share this information more broadly with SFS members and friends and to create a permanent record for the long-run (i.e., institutional memory). 2020 was a busy year for the Review of Asset Pricing Studies (RAPS). We renewed Associate Editors Clemens Sialm and Dimitri Vayanos. We added a special COVID-19 issue. This issue contained 11 papers and an introduction by Lars Peter Hansen. We expect that these papers will provide a foundation for future finance and economics research that is related to COVID.

We contribute to identifying proxies for the information set of investors in financial markets. We show that the marketwide price-dividend ratio highly correlates with inflation and labor market variables that also forecast consumption, dividend, and GDP growth, but not with aggregate consumption or GDP growth. Our model with learning from inflation and wage earnings rationalizes the moments of consumption and dividend growth, market return, the price-dividend ratio, real and nominal term structures, the low predictive power of the price-dividend ratio for consumption and dividends, and the dynamics of the price-dividend ratio, unlike a nested model with learning from consumption alone.

We examine the consistency of several prominent multifactor models from the empirical asset pricing literature with the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) framework. We follow the APT-related literature and estimate the common factor structure from a rich cross-section (associated with 42 major CAPM anomalies) by employing the asymptotic principal components method. Our benchmark model contains six statistical factors and clearly dominates, in both economic and statistical terms, most of the empirical multifactor models proposed in the literature by a good margin. These results represent a critical challenge to the current workhorse models in terms of explaining large-scale equity risk premiums. (JEL G10, G12) Received December 27, 2019; editorial decision October 20, 2020 by Editor Thierry Foucault.

I compare the direct issuance costs of inflation-linked debt (the liquidity premium) with nominal government debt (the inflation risk premium) in developed countries. On average, it is cheaper to issue nominal debt at medium maturities (5–10 years) and inflation-linked debt at long maturities (20 or more years), although results vary somewhat based on whether survey-based or statistical inflation expectations are used. Issuance costs exhibit pronounced time and cross-country variation. Lower inflation-linked debt issuance costs are associated with more countercyclical inflation and higher proportions of inflation-linked debt. International inflation-linked zero-coupon yields are available as an Internet Appendix to this paper. (JEL E31, E43, G12, G15, H30, H63) Received November 22, 2018; editorial decision March 9, 2021 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

This paper highlights the adverse consequences of sluggish credit rating updates in creating information efficiency distortions and investment anomalies. We first document significant credit default swap (CDS) return momentum yielding 7.1% per year. We further show that cross-market momentum strategies based on information in past CDS performance generates an alpha of 10.3% per year in stocks and 7.3% per year in bonds. These CDS momentum and cross-market effects are stronger among more liquid, informationally rich CDS contracts whose CDS spreads move in anticipation of important, yet slow-moving, credit rating changes. (JEL G12, G14) Received February 19, 2020; editorial decision July 10, 2020 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.