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Oil Price Exposure and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2024 14(2), 274-309
Abstract We provide evidence that equity investors are slow to process information about how current oil price changes affect future earnings announcements. Stock prices respond to lagged quarterly oil price changes when firms start announcing earnings in the next quarter. A cross-sectional equity trading strategy that exploits this predictability yields an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.50. Our oil-response forecast strategy earns especially high returns after large absolute oil price changes, in recessions or bear markets, and during peak earnings season. The predictability we document is consistent with limited attention, is not driven by risk factor exposure, and survives several robustness tests. (JEL G10, G11, G14, G40, Q41)

The Cross-Section of Stock Returns Around the World in the Early Twentieth Century

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2025 15(1), 46-73 open access
Abstract We study nine equity markets between 1900 and 1925 to provide an out-of-sample test of some major asset pricing anomalies during a period in which anomalies had not been documented. We find strong evidence of momentum in almost every market. We find no evidence of long-term reversals, which, coupled with the limited presence of institutional investors, suggests that underreaction should be considered as a key aspect of behavioral theories of momentum. We also find evidence for the size effect, betting-against-beta, and the outperformance of low volatility stocks, whereas we find mixed evidence of short-term reversal. (JEL G12, G15, N20)