Knowledge that Transforms

A survey of 255 papers that rely on the instrumental variable (IV) approach for identifying causal effects published in the “Big Three” finance journals reveals that IV estimates are larger than their corresponding uninstrumented estimates in about 80% of the studies, regardless of whether the potential endogeneity is expected to create a positive or negative bias based on economic reasoning. The magnitude of the IV estimates is, on average, nine times of that of the uninstrumented estimates even when economic insights do not suggest a downward bias of the latter. This study provides several explanations to the “implausibly large” IV estimates in finance research, and proposes best practices for identification-conscientious researchers. Received January 20, 2017; editorial decision April 7, 2017 by Editor Gregor Matvos

– Since corporate debt tends to be riskier in recessions, transfers from equity holders to debt holders that accompany corporate decisions also tend to concentrate in recessions. Such systematic risk exposures of debt overhang have important implications for corporate investment and financing decisions, and for the ex ante costs of debt overhang. Using a calibrated dynamic capital structure model, we show that the costs of debt overhang become higher in the presence of macroeconomic risk. We also provide several new predictions on how the cyclicality of a firm’s assets in place and growth options affect its investment and capital structure decisions.