Knowledge that Transforms

This paper analyzes the properties of a number of estimators that can be used to estimate short-run persistence in mutual fund returns. When data for different funds are pooled, it is advisable to correct for cross-sectional differences in expected returns. However, these adjustments may induce biases in the estimated persistence coefficients and thus lead to spurious persistence. Theoretical derivations, combined with a Monte Carlo study, show that these biases cannot be neglected for the samples that are typically used in applied work. We also estimate the short-run persistence in two samples of U.S. open-end mutual funds using quarterly returns for 1987–1994. An important conclusion is that the results are quite sensitive to the estimation method that is employed.

In this paper, we study the initial-conditions problem, a complication associated with left-censored or interrupted spells in the econometric analysis of labor market transitions. In the presence of unobserved individual-specific heterogeneity, no consistent estimators have been previously constructed. This paper proposes such an estimator using indirect inference (II). The II procedure simulates the structural model and “matches” the simulated data with the actual data via the implementation of an informative auxiliary model. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the II estimator are proved. Monte Carlo experiments as well as a real data set are used to illustrate the small-sample performance of the II estimator. These results show that the II estimator is insensitive to the alternative auxiliary models chosen for the II estimation.

Market power exercised by firms has become central to macroeconomics. Recent theoretical work highlights the importance of the relation between market power and inflation. We examine this relation for individual firms in eleven U.S. industries. Our econometric framework exploits restrictions from dynamic theory and information from financial markets to generate quantitative evidence on the responsiveness of market power to inflation. We find that inflation usually has a positive effect on market power. This relation is heterogeneous across the eleven industries, and statistically significant positive relations are concentrated in industries with little market power.

Several national governments argue international telephone prices are high because of asymmetric competition and inefficiencies in the accounting arrangements that govern the telecommunications services trade. This paper develops a model of U.S. international telephone pricing that allows for the accounting rate system and contains market-structure variables for both the U.S. and foreign ends of bilateral markets. Model estimation is on 39 bilateral telephone markets from 1991 through 1994. Parameter estimates reveal that settlement rates, market concentration, competition at either end of the bilateral market, and ownership are significant determinants of prices. These findings support initiatives promoting accounting-rate reductions and increased competition.

In 1968, 23 states barred the self-service sale of gasoline. By 1992, close to 80% of all gasoline sales nationwide were marketed through self-service, and only New Jersey and Oregon continued to ban self-service sales. This paper examines the rise of self-service gasoline and its impact on price and the structure of the retail gasoline sector. Using predicted values for self-service sales for New Jersey and Oregon, the findings indicate that the bans in those two states have affected the retail market structure by slowing the penetration of convenience store tie-ins, and have resulted in retail margins that are approximately $0.03 to $0.05 per gallon higher. However, the bans have provided little protection to smaller outlets, which was a stated objective of their proponents.

Sickness absenteeism figures show a relatively large amount of variation across firms and organizations, indicating substantial within-firm correlations between absenteeism records of individual workers. To study the role of firm-specific circumstances and workforce composition, we specify three-state, multicycle duration models of work, sickness, and job separation, with workplace-specific fixed effects to account for unobserved differences between firms. In the most flexible specification, these fixed effects are separate, nonparametric, baseline hazards for each firm and each type of transition. Alternative estimation methods are discussed and applied to individual absenteeism histories of primary-school teachers.

This paper examines how assumptions imposed on the data influence estimates of schooling's effect on earnings. The paper models schooling decisions as treatment effects and imposes assumptions about schooling selection to estimate bounds on the treatment effect. The study begins by using the worst-case bounds derived by Manski (1989, 1990, 1994, 1995) and adds assumptions from the Roy model of schooling self-selection to narrow the bounds on the schooling treatment effect. The bounds are narrowed further by using family structure, college proximity, and school-quality characteristics as exclusion restrictions. The selection problem requires the researcher to make explicit assumptions to estimate the effect of schooling on earnings. This paper demonstrates that different selection assumptions yield very different results.

This paper examines whether a competitive model of the firm appropriately describes the behavior of hospitals in a non-market environment. This test is based on the best database yet available in the hospital sector. We show that properties of the non-market hospitals' cost functions are compatible with short-term, but not long-term, cost-minimizing behavior. This is consistent with results of similar analyses in the U.S. hospital market and suggests that Québec hospitals, which operate in a non-market environment, might not behave fundamentally differently from their U.S. counterparts.

Using a unique micro data set, we find pervasive evidence of price asymmetry that is systematically related to inflation. An ordered probit model of pricing by manufacturing, building and merchandising firms shows that inflation: (i) increases the probability of a price increase in response to cost increases and (ii) decreases the probability of a price decrease in response to decreases in demand. Predicted inflation-induced asymmetries also show up for price responses to cost decreases and demand increases but not as overwhelmingly. Similar asymmetries are evident in firm's expectations of price changes, with a slight optimistic bias relative to actual changes.

We study cost pass-through in the U.S. automobile market using a framework that incorporates the effects of cost changes on input decisions. We find that accounting for firms' factor-market decisions significantly increases measured cost pass-through, although we reject the hypothesis of full cost pass-through and constant markups. In addition, our evidence suggests that cost shocks common to all manufacturers have a greater effect on prices than do model-specific cost shocks. Finally, we examine how pass-through varies with manufacturer nationality, finding that U.S. firm cost pass-through exceeds that of European and Asian firms.