Knowledge that Transforms

It is highly probable that our exports will change, as to both character and volume, in the months to come; just as they have already changed since the signing of the armistice. In order to recognize developments as they occur, and to interpret their meaning, it is necessary to study current phenomena by the light of recent experience; furthermore, it is necessary to establish standards for judging month-to-month and seasonal fluctuations. In other words, a background is needed before we can orient ourselves and hold our bearings in the present economic confusion. Our object, then, is to present a general view of the export trade of the United States. To attain that object it is necessary, at some points, to neglect the innumerable lesser articles of commerce and to base our analysis upon the most important individual commodities and groups of commodities. We have found that a selection of one hundred of the most important export commodities contributes from 6o to 74 per cent, a fairly large sample, of the total value of exports. The conclusions of this study, particularly those concerning changes in the quantity of exports, are based upon this sample of one hundred important commodities. Other conclusions, however, are based on analysis of the statistics of five great groups of commodities, and of all exports of domestic merchandise.' The plan of the present investigation has necessarily been largely determined by the nature and grouping of the export statistics given in government publications. Monthly statistics of the value of exports for five great groups of commodities, as well as for all commodities, have been published regularly since July I905. The groups just referred to are the following: