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No Razor's Edge: Reexamining Alwyn Young's Evidence for Increasing Interprovincial Trade Barriers in China

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(3), 599-616
Alwyn Young (2000) argues that barriers to interprovincial trade in China have increased during the reform period. This paper critically examines each of his five arguments and the evidence he presents. In all five instances, the argument is problematic and the evidence not robust. A comparison with the United States shows the Chinese evidence to be well within the range of that of a normal, relatively integrated large economy.

Corporate Tax Avoidance and Firm Value

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(3), 537-546
Do corporate tax avoidance activities advance shareholder interests? This paper tests alternative theories of corporate tax avoidance using unexplained differences between income reported to capital markets and to tax authorities. OLS estimates indicate that the effect of tax avoidance on firm value is a function of firm governance, as predicted by an agency perspective on corporate tax avoidance. Instrumental variables estimates based on exogenous changes in tax regulations yield larger overall effects and reinforce the basic result, as do several robustness checks. The results suggest that the simple view of corporate tax avoidance as a transfer of resources from the state to shareholders is incomplete given the agency problems characterizing shareholder-manager relations.

Improved JIVE Estimators for Overidentified Linear Models with and without Heteroskedasticity

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(2), 351-362 open access
We introduce two simple new variants of the jackknife instrumental variables (JIVE) estimator for overidentified linear models and show that they are superior to the existing JIVE estimator, significantly improving on its small-sample-bias properties. We also compare our new estimators to existing Nagar (1959) type estimators. We show that, in models with heteroskedasticity, our estimators have superior properties to both the Nagar estimator and the related B2SLS estimator suggested in Donald and Newey (2001). These theoretical results are verified in a set of Monte Carlo experiments and then applied to estimating the returns to schooling using actual data.

Trade Openness and Volatility

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(3), 558-585
This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel data set of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is accompanied by increased specialization. These two forces imply increased aggregate volatility. Third, sectors that are more open to trade are less correlated with the rest of the economy, an effect that acts to reduce overall volatility. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the relationship between trade openness and overall volatility is positive and economically significant.

Does Pollution Increase School Absences?

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2009 91(4), 682-694
We examine the effect of air pollution on school absences using administrative data for elementary and middle school children in 39 of the largest school districts in Texas merged with air quality information maintained by the Environmental Protection Agency. We address potentially confounding factors with a difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy that controls for persistent characteristics of schools, years, and attendance periods. Of the pollutants considered, we find that high carbon monoxide (CO) levels, even when below federal air quality standards, significantly increase absences. Our results suggest that the substantial decline in CO levels over the past two decades has yielded economically significant health benefits.