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International Inflation Spillovers through Input Linkages

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2019 101(3), 507-521
We document that international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multicountry, industry-level data set that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with global input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation.

Place-Based Policies and the Housing Market

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2019 101(3), 400-414 open access
We study the economic effects of place-based policies in the housing market, by investigating the effects of a place-based program on prices of surrounding owner-occupied properties. The program improved the quality of public housing in 83 impoverished neighborhoods throughout the Netherlands. We combine a first-difference approach with a fuzzy regression-discontinuity design to address the fundamental issue that these neighborhoods are endogenously treated. Improvements in public housing induced surrounding housing prices to increase by 3.5%. The program's external benefits are sizable and at least half of the value of investments in public housing.

Agricultural Fires and Health at Birth

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2019 101(4), 616-630
Fire has long served as a tool in agriculture, but the practice's link with economic activity has made its health consequences difficult to study. Drawing on data from satellite-based fire detection systems, air monitors, and vital records in Brazil, we study how in utero exposure to smoke from sugarcane harvest fires affects health at birth. Exploiting daily changes in fire location and wind direction for identification, we find that late-pregnancy smoke exposure decreases birthweight, gestational length, and in utero survival. Fires less associated with smoke exposure predict improved health, highlighting the importance of disentangling pollution from its economic correlates.

The Place Premium: Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2019 101(2), 201-213 open access
Large international differences in the price of labor can be sustained by differences between workers or by natural and policy barriers to worker mobility. We use migrant selection theory and evidence to place lower bounds on the ad valorem equivalent of labor mobility barriers to the United States, with unique nationally representative microdata on both U.S. immigrant workers and workers in their 42 home countries. The average price equivalent of migration barriers in this setting for low-skill men is greater than $13,700 per worker per year. Natural and policy barriers may each create annual global losses of trillions of dollars.