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Formula Bias and Within-stratum Substitution Bias in the U.S. CPI

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1998 80(2), 175-187
In 1978 BLS adopted an estimator for U.S. CPI component indexes that incorporates scientific samples of outlets and varieties and that allows the calculation of reliable standard errors. Consumer substitution of outlets and varieties offering better values could cause bias in these indexes. A more important source of bias is, however, a tendency to give excessive weight to items whose initial price is temporarily low. The empirical evidence is striking. Average price series and matched food CPIs grew at almost the same rate before 1978, but between 1980 and 1992 the CPIs average about 1.4% per year more growth. For unleaded gasoline, the discrepancy averages 0.8% per year.

Discrimination, Competition, and Loan Performance in FHA Mortgage Lending

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1998 80(2), 241-250
This study tests for the presence of prejudicial or “noneconomic” discrimination on the part of mortgage lenders by evaluating the performance of home mortgage loans. The approach differs from that of previous studies of loan performance in that it is based on the proposition that noneconomic discrimination should be more pronounced in less competitive lending environments, while statistical discrimination should not. Using a rich set of FHA-insured loan records and measures of local market concentration to proxy the competitive environment, we test for the prediction of better loan performance by minority borrowers relative to white borrowers in more concentrated markets. We argue that this approach substantially reduces the potential for omitted-variable bias that has cast a shadow on previous studies of lending discrimination. Results fail to reject the null hypothesis of no noneconomic discrimination.

Universities as a Source of Commercial Technology: A Detailed Analysis of University Patenting, 1965–1988

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1998 80(1), 119-127 open access
This paper explores the recent explosion in university patenting as a source of insight into the changing relationship between the university and the private sector. Before the mid-1980s, university patents were more highly cited, and were cited by more diverse patents, than a random sample of all patents. More recently several significant shifts in university patenting behavior have led to the disappearance of this difference. Thus our results suggest that between 1965 and 1988 the rate of increase of important patents from universities was much less than their overall rate of increase of patenting.