IN the Far East, the overall volume of intraregional trade is not as substantial as that of Europe, but much larger than that of Latin America.2 One rather unique and very interesting feature of Far Eastern intraregional trade is that one country, namely, Japan, stands out prominently, from the point of view of both the character and magnitude of its trade. Japan contributed about one-third of the Far Eastern intraregional trade in the immediate prewar years (32.3 per cent for 1935, 34.5 per cent for 1937, and 38.o per cent for I938). Immediately after the cessation of hostilities, its share suffered a sharp reduction, but again became a significant percentage of the total in 1949 (I6.5 per cent). The ratio of Far Eastern intraregional trade to its total export, and Japan's share in intraregional trade showed a tendency to fluctuate together.3 Since Japan's share was about one-third in the prewar period and its intraregional imports were related to the volume of total intraregional exports, several questions may be raised with regard to the future role of Japan in the intraregional trade of the Far East. What are the initial and secondary effects of Japan's imports from the Far East on the intraregional exports of the countries of this region? Does such relationship in the prewar period remain true in the postwar period? If there is a change of preand postwar relationships, what are some of the reasons for the change? How are Japan's imports from the Far East related to the over-all exports of the region to all countries? This paper is a preliminary attempt at an analysis of the above questions.

The analysis of economic phenomena at the wholistic (aggregative) level 11l8intains a long tradition that assumes the neoclassical production function Q-f(K,L) (i.e., output as a function of capital and labor) satisfies the condition of constant returns to scale.The assumed absence of any (dis-)economies of scale renders the production function useless, when the scale effect is as pronounced as is typically found at the less aggregative levels of individual firm or industry analvsis.. .The purpose of this paper is to deduce new classes of production functions that are not limited to the constant returns to scale characteristic.Hore specifically, the scale effect is described by an arbitrary function of one of the factors of production, capital in this paper.This class of production functions exhibi-ts scale sensitivity with respect to capital (SSWK).The paper shows how different fmidlies of production functions can be derived from two basic .. building blocks," a :wage share function and a scale functitm.The Cobb-])ouglas, CES and VES production fmu:tions are special cases.~e Cobb-Douglas and CES functions can be expanded to incorporate non-constant returns to scale.A smnple of firms from Taiwan is used to test among various derived functional specifications.An interesting diversity of preferred specifications was found among three industries.

Abstract Parole was eliminated for many US offenders by Truth-in-Sentencing (TIS) laws in the 1990s. I exploit the introduction of TIS in Arizona to explore its impact on offenders before, during, and after incarceration. TIS Offenders were assigned significantly shorter sentences, largely eliminating the intended increase in punishment. These offenders reduced their rehabilitative effort while incarcerated, with rule infractions increasing by 22% and education enrollment falling by 24%. Finally, TIS offenders became 23% more likely to return to prison for a new conviction. I argue these effects were driven by TIS removing parole incentives, given that time served remained largely unchanged.

This paper empirically tests the association between genetically determined resistance to infectious disease and cross-country health differences. A country-level measure of genetic diversity for the system of genes associated with the recognition and disposal of foreign pathogens is constructed. Genetic diversity within this system has been shown to reduce the virulence and prevalence of infectious diseases and is hypothesized to have been naturally selected from historical exposure to infectious pathogens. Base estimation shows a statistically strong, robust, and positive relationship between this constructed measure and country-level health outcomes in times prior to, but not after, the international epidemiological transition.

Abstract Analysis of daily reported incidents of major crimes in twelve U.S. cities reveals an increase in crime over the course of monthly welfare payment cycles. This increase reflects an increase in crimes that are likely to have a direct financial motivation as opposed to other kinds of crime. Temporal patterns in crime are observed in jurisdictions in which disbursements are focused at the beginning of monthly welfare payment cycles and not in jurisdictions in which disbursements are relatively more staggered. These findings indicate that welfare beneficiaries consume welfare-related income quickly and then attempt to supplement it with criminal income.

A number of recent studies have found intranational trade to be excessive compared to international trade, based on a gravity specification. The preferred explanation for this finding has been the presence of formal and informal trade barriers, with associated welfare consequences. If such barriers were indeed the sole culprit, home bias should not exist on the subnational level. We find, however, that home bias is present within U.S. states, suggesting the presence of other causes of excessive home trade.

Most households persistently invest in riskless assets but not stocks, and may do so because they perceive information required for market participation to be costly relative to expected benefits. In a Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) increased risk aversion, income risk, and lower resources reduce the information expense sufficient to deter stockholding. Bivariate probit analysis using the 1983–1989 Survey of Consumer Finances shows that households with lower risk aversion, higher education, and greater wealth who were nonstockholders in 1983 had an increased conditional probability of entering by 1989, whereas 1983 stockholders with lower resources, more limited education, and greater risk aversion were more likely to be nonstockholders by 1989.

A two-step procedure for estimating linear simultaneous structural equations with unit roots is presented. It generalizes the procedure of differencing for univariate time series via G. Box and J. M. Jenkins (1970). First, one finds the number of unit roots and the canonical variables that are stationary. Second, one retains only the stationary canonical variables and estimates a stationary model by standard methods. The procedure is easy to use. It is robus t against the difficult testing problem of finding the correct number of unit roots. A multiplier-accelerator model is estimated with interesting conclusions. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Lack of explicit markets and associated data have impeded measurement of nonpecuniary rewards in the workplace. Most of the published literature employs hedonic models that permit estimation of market-clearing prices, but do not allow for identification of demand schedules. In an alternative approach, used successfully by environmental economists, the author develops quasi-market data and uses it to estimate demand for the nonpecuniary rewards associated with leadership. In addition to price responsiveness, individuals exhibit tastes for the amenities of leadership that differ substantially, and in expected directions, with their personal and professional characteristics. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Using data on stock price and dividends, and on long-term and short-term interest rates, the authors test an important implication of present value models--that current value is a linear function of the conditional expectations of the next-period value and the current determining variable . This implication, combined with rational expectations, is strongly rejected. Combined with adaptive expectations, it is accepted. The latter model can also explain the observed negative relation between the rate of return and stock price. Thus the rational expectations assumption should be used with caution; the adaptive expectations assumption may be useful in econometric practice. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)