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Monetary Policy when Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1997 79(4), 573-585
This paper assesses the importance of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the interest-rate channel of monetary policy. We simulate several interest-rate setting policy rules with either high or low inflation targets. We determine the extent to which the zero bound prevents real rates from falling, thus cushioning aggregate output in response to negative spending shocks. For small temporary and large permanent shocks, the output path with zero inflation lies modestly below that for higher inflation. For large shocks persisting a few quarters, differences in output paths across high- and low-inflation scenarios can be larger.

Estimating Capital Asset Price Indexes

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1997 79(2), 226-233
This paper introduces an improved procedure for estimating capital asset price indexes. We jointly estimate conventional hedonic and repeat sales models via maximum-likelihood procedures, thereby taking advantage of the unique features of the individual models and using all the data that are available. Our model captures depreciation within the repeat sales model and accounts for serial correlation in hedonic data. The improvement in precision obtained by estimating the joint model is illustrated by smaller standard errors and narrower interval estimates for the resulting price indexes. We also carry out a simulation experiment that shows estimation errors significantly smaller using the joint estimation technique than either of the individual models or the GLS estimator of Case and Quigley (1991).

Demographic Transition, Family Structure, and Income Inequality

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1997 79(4), 665-669
We treat each age-specific income-earning member of the family as an income “source,” and use the source-specific Gini decomposition approach as well as the Lorenz comparison approach to study the impact of the changing population age structure on family income inequality. Empirical analysis using Taiwanese data shows that the pattern of Gini coefficients is significantly affected by the above-mentioned age composition factor. The general implication is that for many developing countries which have recently gone through rapid demographic transition, family income inequality indexed may implicitly embody information as to the age-specific composition of family members, which is irrelevant to the general notion of inequality.

Public Capital and Private Productivity

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1997 79(2), 267-278
This paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity. The juxtaposition of approaches removes the variability in estimates due to dissimilar variable definitions and econometric methodologies. Estimates are based on U.S. time-series data and are evaluated by the implied elasticities of substitution, the prediction of labor productivity trends, and the impact of public capital on productivity. As the three approaches yield very different estimates, it will be hard to ever settle the debate about the effect of public capital on private productivity.