N 1970 Baumol, Heim, Malkiel, and Quandt (hereinafter BHMQ) published a provocative article. Their hypothesis was that for U.S. firms the rate of return from invested funds would be greatest when the financing involved the most serious exercise of market discipline. On these grounds they conjectured that borrowing would tend to produce significant increases in earnings but not as great as those associated with new stock issues, and that the rate of return to plowback would be the lowest of the three. BHMQ's empirical tests led them to the following conclusions:

This paper provides direct evidence on the extent of monopsony power in the low-wage labor market by estimating the firm-level elasticity of labor supply for nurse aides in the long-term care (nursing home) industry. Using exogenous variation in hiring induced by the passage of a state minimum nurse staffing law, I find that facilities initially out of compliance with the new law did not have to raise their wage offers relative to their competitors in order to hire more nurses. While this is consistent with perfect competition in simple monopsony models of the labor market, I discuss how the results may be more ambiguous in more complicated models.

Over the past thirty years, the use of child safety seats in motor vehicles has increased dramatically. There is, however, relatively little empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of child safety seats relative to the much cheaper alternative of traditional seat belts. Using data on all fatal crashes in the United States from 1975 to 2003, I find that child safety seats, in actual practice, do not provide any discernible improvement over adult lap and shoulder belts in reducing fatalities among children aged two to six. Lap-only belts are somewhat less effective, but still far superior to riding unrestrained.

This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The primary focus is on world real non-oil primary commodity prices, although the effects on G-7 consumer price inflation and GDP growth are also considered. This paper has several distinct advantages over previous studies. First, several econometric models are estimated using fairly broad measures of prices and economic activity. Second, the models include continuous measures of ENSO intensity (sea surface temperature and sea-level air pressure anomalies in the Pacific Ocean) rather than dummy variable measures. Finally, confidence intervals are constructed for all estimated effects of ENSO on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically important and statistically significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3.5 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20% of commodity price inflation movements over the past several years. ENSO also has some explanatory power for world consumer price inflation and world economic activity, accounting for approximately 10% to 20% of movements in those variables.

This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to incorporating specification and identification uncertainty into a VAR analysis of the dynamic effects of money supply shocks on the macroeconomy. The approach follows Poirier (1991) in averaging over discrete model specifications in forming posterior densities of the dynamic responses to such shocks. Two distinct means of identifying money supply shocks are considered here: one that imposes contemporaneous restrictions, and one that imposes long-run monetary neutrality. I estimate bounds on dynamic responses that account for specification and parameter uncertainty, and find strong evidence of short-run real effects of money on the economy, including a liquidity effect for both long-term and short-term interest rates. Furthermore, some results differ substantially across identifying restrictions if model uncertainty is ignored.

There is now a substantial body of evidence that suggests business cycles are asymmetric. However, the evidence has been accumulated using a wide array of statistical techniques and, consequently, is based on various definitions of asymmetry. This paper examines several parametric models that have been used to study asymmetries in real GNP. Although these models capture asymmetries in very different ways, their dynamic properties are remarkably similar.

A popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk. This paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways. First, the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered. Second, exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government's optimal tax plan. Finally, the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time. Allowing for these changes, there is evidence that the government discounts the future, attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes on the marginal utility of consumption, and that the tax elasticity of output moves predictably during wars.

This paper attempts to distinguish empirically real versus nominal sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates. The distinction is obtained by imposing the following restriction on the bivariate vector autoregression of real and nominal exchange rates over the current flexible rate period: nominal shocks are required to have no permanent effect on the level of the real exchange rate. Given this identification scheme, the author analyzes the dynamic effects and relative importance of real and nominal shocks with regards to exchange rates. The findings indicate that real shocks dominate nominal shocks for both exchange rate series over short and long frequencies.

Evidence on costs and factor substitution is presented for a sample of local fire departments in New York State. The results suggest that fire service production does not fit either Leontief, Cobb-Douglas, or CES technology. In addition, exogenous socioeconomic variables are found to significantly affect public-sector costs and the estimates of factor price elasticities. The findings of relatively low factor demand and substitution elasticities suggest that local governments may have limited flexibility in adjusting their production of fire services to minimize the impact of rising factor prices.