Did inflation targets reduce the level of expected inflation in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom? In this note, predictions of forecasts by professional forecasters are constructed for five consecutive 12-month periods after the announcement of targets. These predictions use a variety of information variables known to forecasters at the time they make their forecasts. The results show that, after the announcement of targets, predicted forecasts are less than actual forecasts in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Sweden. This is evidence that targets reduced the level of expected inflation. No evidence of such effects is found in the United Kingdom.

We adapt techniques from the literature on chaos and nonlinear dynamics to detect misspecification in models of serially independent data by checking for dependence between the regressors and disturbances. Our tests are nonparametric in that they determine whether the distribution of the disturbances depends on the regressors without identifying a model of dependence or the distribution of the disturbances. In Monte Carlo simulations we find that these tests have good power against dependence caused by omitted variables, incorrect functional form, heteroskedasticity, and similar problems.We also apply our tests to detect misspecification in models of income imputation.