Utilizing a utility-maximizing, Roy-type, discrete choice model of worker location in Canadian provinces and U.S. states that incorporates returns to skill, amenities, fixed costs, distance, language, and border effects, we find that individuals with higher skills migrate to areas with higher returns and that the 49th parallel attenuates migration. Simulations indicate that equalizing returns in the two countries has a modest effect on cross-country migration; however, reductions in border effects tend to have large nonlinear effects on it. Our results confirm the qualitative results of previous research emphasizing the importance of returns to skill and border effects in migration decisions.

In this paper the authors have theoretically derived a net migration equation and estimated it using time-series data for 51 regions over the period 1971-88. The results indicate that the dynamic response of net migration is stable and is significantly related to stock equilibrium changes induced by amenity differentials, relative employment opportunities, relative real wages, and industry composition. Moreover, the explicit linkage of stock equilibrium to stable dynamic flows in the model ensures that any stock disequilibrium will generate a finite migration response sufficient to attain a new stock equilibrium. The estimated parameters determine the speed at which net migration re-establishes stock equilibrium. Coauthors are Dan S. Rickman, Gary L. Hunt, and Michael J. Greenwood.