James M. Poterba, Lawrence H. Summers, Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 207-216

This paper considers a new approach to the analysis of stable relationships between nonstationary seasonal time series. The basis of this approach is an error correction model in which both long-run effects and adjustment parameters are allowed to vary per season. First, we discuss theoretical arguments for such a periodic error correction model. We define periodic cointegration and compare this to the concept of seasonal cointegration. Next, we analyze statistical inference in the periodic error correction model A sequential procedure is proposed, consisting of a test for periodic cointegration, an estimator of the cointegration parameters and adjustment coefficients, and a class of tests for the hypothesis that some of the parameters are constant over the seasons. The finite sample behavior of the proposed test statistics is analyzed in a limited Monte Carlo exercise. We conclude the paper with an application to a model of aggregate Swedish consumption.

This paper estimates a dynamic demand model for liquor in the United States using panel data from 43 states. Because of taste changes over time and between states in liquor consumption, purely time series or cross sectional studies do not elicit reliable price elasticity estimates. This study makes the case for pooling and shows how one can control for individual state effects and endogeneity of the regressors using estimators suited for a dynamic demand model. Our results indicate that the long-run price elasticity is in the -0.7 range. The findings also support strong habit persistence, a small positive income elasticity, and very weak evidence of bootlegging from adjoining states. The magnitude of the long-run price effect suggests that sin taxes can serve not only as an important income source but also as a significant deterrent effect.

This paper proposes a methodology for obtaining estimates of firm-specific technical change econometrically and contrasts those estimates with a multilateral total factor productivity index. Based on a panel data set of airlines, two measures are contrasted in a variety of ways. To the extent that output characteristics differ as in the case of airlines, the two measures differ significantly. Both measures are regressed on a variety of factors potentially influencing technical efficiency, confirming that improvements in fuel efficiency and load factor have played major roles, with hubbing and competition playing smaller roles, in explaining efficiency improvements.