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The Mechanism and Possibilities of Inflation

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1935 17(2), 45
IT is not possible to forecast changes in currency and in bank deposits in this country. Some inkling of the future may be obtained, however, by making a survey of recent developments and of the mechanical possibilities of expansion, using approximate figures for gold, circulating bank deposits, federal reserve issues, silver coin or certificates, and greenbacks. Some attention should be devoted to the methods available for control when and if currency and deposit expansion should pass any limit thought by the Administration to be satisfactory. At the very heart of the present problem, we find the policies of the Treasury as to gold and the financing of the federal deficit by sales of bonds to banks. For the time being, the Administration has suspended the established and recognized central bank method of facilitating and encouraging expansion i.e., the creation of new bank reserves by increased open market purchases or rediscounts by the federal reserve banks and has fallen back upon the method used for the financing of the War. To be sure, we did not then have gold devaluation nor the seizure of gold stocks by the Treasury, but otherwise the method is the same. Gold devaluation, as applied at the outset to that portion of the gold stock which was commandeered by the Treasury, resulted directly in a mark-up or bookkeeping profit of 2.8 billion dollars in terms of the new money of account. Thereafter, to the end of I934, domestic gold production plus devaluation profits on coin and old gold certificates dribbling in added 0.2 billions. Further, as an indirect result of devaluation at a mint price which undervalued the dollar, there was a large import of gold which was turned over to the Treasury. The net gold imports, including net release from earmark, between January 3I and December 3I, I934 amounted to I.2 billion dollars, in terms of the new money of account. Thus, in the aggregate, 4.2 billions were placed at the disposal of the Treasury for manipulation.