This study evaluates the impact of variations in regulation, ownership, and market structure in the U.S. electric utility industry during the period surrounding the New Deal, when considerable institutional variation provided a natural experiment for analysis. A simultaneous-equations model of electricity supply and demand is developed and estimated for the years 1930 and 1942 with firm- and market-level data collected on utilities serving cities of population 50,000 or more. The paper offers evidence that regulation, public ownership, and competition served to reduce electricity prices and enhance allocative efficiency during the period under examination.

This paper presents a model to estimate the rate of capacity utilization (CU) in the manufacturing sector by state. Consistent measures of state-level CU rates have been unavailable since 1982. The lack of a capacity measure has hindered regional studies of capital formation, long-run output growth, and productivity growth. Our model employs a neoclassical approach to estimate CU. We estimate a model to determine the optimal level of production and compare it with the actual level in order to define our CU index. Our results show that states in the West North Central, South Atlantic, and Pacific census divisions tend to have a CU index consistently above the nation's average. On the other hand, states in the East North Central and West South Central census divisions tend to have a CU index below the nation's average.

This paper investigates the empirical effect of volatility on irreversible investments. We use a sample of chemical products in the United States and the European Union to test the impact of volatility on new investments in capacity. We distinguish among three sources of volatility: exchange rates, input prices, and product demand. We find that the effects of volatility on the amount of capacity investment differ depending on the source of volatility. Input prices and product demand volatility do not appear to have a material and statistically significant effect in either the United States or the European Union. In contrast, exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on investment by chemical manufacturers in the European Union.

The Memoranda of Discussion provide detailed records of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting deliberations. Procedures are developed for coding the textual data in the Memoranda and assessing the reliability of those codings. The codings are then used in the estimation of parameters of individual FOMC members' reaction functions. Data from the 1970 to 1976 period are employed in the estimation. In the future, similar methods could be used to analyze newly released transcripts of FOMC meetings held after 1976.

Hospitals expend considerable resources each year to provide health care to the poor. Why do some hospitals voluntarily take on a disproportionate burden of this care? Our view is that the burdened hospitals are not simply altruistic. They are indirectly compensated for this expense with legal protections against competition under certificate-ofneed (CON) regulation. We test this hypothesis in a recursive model, explaining which hospitals are likely to win CON approval. The results indicate that, controlling for the endogeneity of indigent care, regulators in Florida systematically awarded licenses to hospitals providing greater amounts of care to the poor.

In their seminal study on interindustry wage differentials, Krueger and Summers (1988) expressed estimated industry differences as deviations from a hypothetical employment-share weighted mean. Virtually the whole labor literature has followed their approach, yet most studies avoid calculating the exact standard errors of these differences. This note relates this problem to the general literature on dummy variables and their interpretation. It is demonstrated that the implementation of exact estimates involves only simple matrix operations, making any approximative procedure difficult to justify. Disregarding this conclusion will in practice, even with large samples, lead to substantially overstated standard errors of the estimated differentials and to the understatement of their overall variability.

We explore the impact of the child care tax credit in the U.S. income tax system on the labor supply decisions of married women with young children by incorporating the cost of child care into a structural labor supply model. Using data from the 1986 NLSY, we find that government subsidies to child care increase labor supply substantially. Our policy simulations show that an increase in the value of the child care tax credit (i.e., percent of expenditures subsidized) would have a much larger effect on labor supply than an increase in the annual expenditure limits of the subsidy or making the subsidy refundable.

This paper uses three different approaches to investigate whether the declining provision of public capital is a major cause of declining labor productivity. The juxtaposition of approaches removes the variability in estimates due to dissimilar variable definitions and econometric methodologies. Estimates are based on U.S. time-series data and are evaluated by the implied elasticities of substitution, the prediction of labor productivity trends, and the impact of public capital on productivity. As the three approaches yield very different estimates, it will be hard to ever settle the debate about the effect of public capital on private productivity.