This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the ‘prime saving years’ (40 to 64), and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by recent claims that the aging of the ‘baby boom’ cohort is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values, and by predictions that asset prices will decline when this group reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from repeated cross sections of the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that, whereas age-wealth profiles rise sharply when households are in their thirties and forties, they decline much more gradually when households are in their retirement years. When these data are used to generate ‘projected asset demands’ based on the projected future age structure of the U.S. population, they do not show a sharp decline in asset demand between 2020 and 2050. The paper considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock, using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Although theoretical models generally suggest that equilibrium returns on financial assets will vary in response to changes in population age structure, it is difficult to find robust evidence of such relationships in the time series data. This is partly due to the limited power of statistical tests based on the few ‘effective degrees of freedom’ in the historical record of age structure and asset returns. These results suggest caution in projecting large future changes in asset values on the basis of shifting demographics. Although the projected asset demand does display some correlation with the price-dividend ratio on corporate stocks, this does not portend a sharp prospective decline in asset values, because the projected asset demand variable does not fall in future decades.

We test whether smooth industry-level investment dynamics result from explicit aggregation of asynchronous and possibly lumpy firm-level investment. We compare the deviations of optimal from actual firm behavior across industries categorized by their ratios of idiosyncratic uncertainty to the sum of idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. The deviations are represented by the residuals of a cointegrating regression that is derived from the firm's first-order condition under no adjustment costs. In support of models with asynchronous firm decisions, we find a significant negative relationship across industries between idiosyncratic uncertainty and the persistence of these residuals.

Although there is a considerable literature on the role of market structure in banking markets, no attention has been given to the impact of the competitive discipline provided by credit unions on consumer credit rates offered by banks. After presenting a theoretical framework for understanding the impact credit unions should be expected to have, this article analyzes a pooled cross-sectional, time-series sample with roughly 1,000 observations on relatively small United States markets, with the focus on explaining bank rates for two types of consumer loans. Results confirm the previously observed role of market structure and suggest a significant role for credit unions in disciplining the exercise of market power by banks.

It is generally believed that the increased incidence of homelessness in the United States has arisen from broad societal factors, such as changes in the institutionalization of the mentally ill, increases in drug addiction and alcohol usage, and so forth. This paper presents a comprehensive test of the alternate hypothesis that variations in homelessness arise from changed circumstances in the housing market and in the income distribution. We assemble essentially all the systematic information available on homelessness in U.S. urban areas: census counts, shelter bed counts, records of transfer payments, and administrative agency estimates. We estimate similar statistical models using four different samples of data on the incidence of homelessness, defined according to very different criteria. Our results suggest that simple economic principles governing the availability and pricing of housing and the growth in demand for the lowest-quality housing explain a large portion of the variation in homelessness among U.S. metropolitan housing markets. Furthermore, rather modest improvements in the affordability of rental housing or its availability can substantially reduce the incidence of homelessness in the United States. 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

In a privatization competition, private contractors bid against an in-house team to perform a governmental function that is currently performed by the in-house team. The Department of Defense initiated 3,500 privatization competitions from 1978 to 1994, generating estimated annual savings of $1.46 billion. We estimate a reduced-form model of the savings from these competitions that takes into account the premature cancellation of some competitions and the censoring of the in-house bid at current cost. The Department of Defense maintains a list of candidates for future privatization competitions. Using our model, we forecast annual savings of $5.74 billion if privatization competitions were completed for all functions on this list.

Enterprise restructuring is expected to improve efficiency in transition economies. With data from former East Germany, we compare the efficiency of family farms and partnerships with large-scale successor organizations of the collective and state farms (LSOs). Using parametric and nonparametric techniques, we show that LSOs display lower technical efficiency than do family farms and partnerships but that this difference is small and declining during transition, mainly as a result of structural changes in agriculture. Family farms are not as scale efficient as partnerships and LSOs, and partnerships are superior to all other organizational forms.

Using data from a unique nationally representative sample of businesses, we examine the impact of workplace practices, information technology, and human capital investments on productivity. We estimate an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function with both cross section and panel data covering the period of 1987–1993, using both within and GMM estimators. We find that it is not whether an employer adopts a particular work practice but rather how that work practice is actually implemented within the establishment that is associated with higher productivity. Unionized establishments that have adopted human resource practices that promote joint decision making coupled with incentive-based compensation have higher productivity than other similar nonunion plants, whereas unionized businesses that maintain more traditional labor management relations have lower productivity. Finally, plant productivity is higher in businesses with more-educated workers or greater computer usage by nonmanagerial employees.

We estimate the impact of employer-provided retiree health insurance (EPRHI) on the labor force transitions of men aged 51 to 62.Data from the Health and Retirement Survey provide detailed and accurate measures of retiree health insurance. Availability of EPRHI increases the rate of exit from employment by two percentage points per year if the individual shares the cost of the insurance with the firm, and by six percentage points if the firm pays the entire cost. The impact of cost-shared EPRHI on the annual rate of labor force exit increases with age, reaching 7.5 percentage points by age 61.

We examine the effect of air quality regulation on productivity in some of the most heavily regulated manufacturing plants in the United States, the oil refineries of the Los Angeles (South Coast) Air Basin. We use direct measures of local air pollution regulation to estimate their effects on abatement investment. Refineries not subject to these regulations are used as a comparison group. We study a period of sharply increased regulation between 1979 and 1992. Initial compliance with each regulation cost $3 million per plant and a further $5 million to comply with increased stringency. We construct measures of total factor productivity using Census of Manufacturers output and materials data that report physical quantities of inputs and outputs for the entire population of refineries. Despite high costs associated with the local regulations, productivity in the Los Angeles Air Basin refineries rose sharply between 1987 and 1992, which was a period of decreased refinery productivity in other regions. We conclude that abatement cost measures may grossly overstate the economic cost of environmental regulation as abatement can increase productivity.

A new information-based approach for estimating systems of many equations with nonnegativity constraints is presented. This approach, called generalized maximum entropy (GME), is more practical and efficient than traditional maximum-likelihood methods. The GME method is used to estimate an almost ideal demand system for five types of meat using cross-sectional data from Mexico, where most households did not buy at least one type of meat during the survey week. The system of demands is shown to vary across demographic groups.