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Welfare, Income, and Budget Needs

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1959 41(4), 393
R EAL disposable income is the measure generally accepted by economists as an indicator of the welfare of a household. Were we living in a world in which each individual formed a household and in which everyone required exactly the same goods to maintain himself, real disposable income might be an adequate measure. However, households are generally complex, and the income of a household must support a number of individuals whose daily requirements range from the nominal demands of a young child to the ample needs of an adolescent. Thus the welfare of a household must be measured not only by its income but also by the size of the household and the variety of needs of its members. This paper discusses a measure of welfare which relates the resources of a household to its needs. Estimates of welfare levels in the United States population based on this measure show that disposable income and per capita disposable income are extremely crude measures of welfare. Both overstate or understate the standard of living of an appreciable fraction of the United States population. The paper concludes with a few notes on the need for more accurate measures of welfare.

Forecasting Short-Run Variation in Labor Market Activity

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1968 50(1), 68
EVERY adult consciously or unconsciously determines the extent to which he supplies labor for economic activities. Every business determines the extent to which it wishes to increase its work force by new hiring or the extent to which it wishes to reduce its work force by layoffs. The outcome of these decisions is recorded in a monthly tally of the employed (E), unemployed (U), new hires (h), layoffs and quits (s),' and the number of adults outside the labor force (N). As a first step towards understanding the supply and demand relationships that determine the flows of new hires and separations and the stock of unemployed, the authors have examined the Markov matrix A, that determines transitions between the state of Employment, Et, Unemployment of less than one month's duration Uot, Unemployment of more than one month's duration Ult, and non-labor force participation Nt. By definition