This paper examines the impact of changes in labor market conditions on participation in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program in California. Transitions off welfare and transitions back onto welfare are estimated using discrete duration models that control for local labor market conditions, demographic and neighborhood characteristics, duration effects, county-fixed effects, time effects, and county- specific time trends. The results show that higher unemployment rates, lower employment growth, lower employment-to-population ratios, and lower wage growth are associated with longer welfare spells and higher recidivism rates. Hispanics, blacks, and two-parent families are the groups that are most sensitive to changes in local labor market conditions.

T HIS paper examines the effects of debt management on aggregate expenditure during I9 53-58. The Treasury in this period lengthened the debt in recession and allowed it to shorten somewhat in prosperity (Table i), the opposite of the anti-cyclical policy advocated by some economists. Treasury policy was defended on the grounds that it did not unduly intensify recessions and that offerings of longterm securities in prosperity provided undesirable competition with new issues of private, state, and local government securities and increased interest costs.1 Debt management for purposes of this paper

i the proportion of T which is invested in the borrowing country j the proportion of T spent outside the borrowing country p = the proportion of T spent in the lending country (j>p). In the lending country the increase in income will amount to: p.T times the multiplier (allowing for foreign repercussions); (I) while the decline in the balance of payments surplus 3 will be: [T minus p * T plus MPM p T times the multiplier] minus [a secondary increase in export to the borrowing country whose income has gone up]. (2) In the borrowing country, income will rise by: i. T times the foreign trade multiplier (3) while the external deficit will decline by: [T j.T] [MPM.i.T times the foreign trade multiplier]. (4) It is evident from (2) and (4) that the transfer must exceed the foreign exchange requirements of the development program if it is to have a favorable effect on the external position of both nations. This is particularly true for the borrowing country. Provisions may also be made for spacing repayments over periods of inflation. This would reduce the external surplus in the paying country and the external deficit in the receiving country, while damping the inflation in both economies. A policy of countercyclical lending is subject to the same limitation as the use of public work programs in combatting recessions. By the time a foreign investment project gets under way the recession may be over, but work on the project cannot be stopped for the duration of the ensuing boom. (However, the two lags in the transmission of economic fluctuations from developed to underdeveloped countries would reduce some of this inflexibility.) This is another reason why the responsibility for such a policy must rest with a public body. Some useful investment projects can no doubt be found which are flexible in nature and adaptable to cyclical needs. The amount of the transfer should in any case exceed the immediate costs of these projects. Furthermore, the subject under discussion would not constitute the entire lending program, but only a small part of it. International transfers should be geared to development requirements and not to cyclical fluctuations. Nor can cycle policy be used to justify foreign lending. But inasmuch as lending programs are conducted to foster economic development, there is no reason why they should not be used in part to combat economic fluctuations and external imbalances. ing 1947-1958: Y = -0.225 + o.oo63 X 4o.II6; r= o.682. 'These adjustments are limited to the income effects and should be supplemented by changes in the terms of trade.

In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain variations in immigration to the United States by source country since the early 1970s. The explanatory variables include ratios to the United States of source country income and education as well as relative inequality. In addition, we incorporate the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy. We use the results to shed light on the impact of policy by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s. We also examine the factors that influenced the composition of U.S. immigration by source region over the entire period.

Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no: there is little evidence of trend since 1700. Have commodities always shown greater price volatility than manufactures? The answer is yes. Higher commodity price volatility is not the modern product of asymmetric industrial organizations -oligopolistic manufacturing versus competitive commodity markets -that only appeared with the industrial revolution. It was a fact of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The answer is less. Three centuries of history shows unambiguously that economic isolation caused by war or autarkic policy has been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro-global policy has been associated with less commodity price volatility. Given specialization and comparative advantage, globalization has been good for growth in poor countries at least by diminishing price volatility. But comparative advantage has never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the early 19th century; but it did not do so after the 1970s as the Third World shifted to labor-intensive manufactures. Whether price volatility or specialization dominates terms of trade and thus aggregate volatility in poor countries is thus conditional on the century.